Change in State of Delivery (CISD) [SB Instant]🧠 Modified by SB | Core Logic by LuxAlgo
🔗 Licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0
Change in State of Delivery (CISD) is a concept rooted in observing shifts in order flow behavior, designed to detect the first signs of trend exhaustion and potential reversal. This model tracks when the current delivery (trend) structure — bullish or bearish — is violated by an opposing force, signaling a potential change in market intent.
In simple terms:
A Bullish CISD is triggered when sellers fail to maintain control, and buyers break above a delivery line.
A Bearish CISD is triggered when buyers fail, and sellers break below a delivery line.
This version uses real-time logic, triggering alerts immediately on break, rather than waiting for candle-close confirmation — giving faster, actionable signals to precision-driven traders.
⚙️ Core Features
Detection Modes
Classic: Traditional swing-based structural break detection
Liquidity Sweep: Logic incorporating wick sweeps (liquidity grabs)
Custom Parameters
Swing Length: Number of candles used to identify swing points
Minimum CISD Duration: Minimum length required for valid delivery phase
Maximum Swing Validity: How long the structure remains valid for potential breaks
Visual Options
Label and line styling options
Solid line = Initial break of delivery structure
Dashed line = Continuation break in the same trend direction
This allows you to visually differentiate a new reversal vs. a continuation of the existing trend.
🚨 Built-in Alerts
Bullish CISD Detected (Instant)
Bearish CISD Detected (Instant)
These alerts fire immediately when structure is broken, offering early confirmation for aggressive or reactive trade setups.
🔔 IMPORTANT:
If an alert triggers but the delivery line is not present, wait for the price to form the CISD label again and manually mark the price level using a horizontal ray. This ensures you are trading from a clearly defined structure.
🕒 Recommended Timeframes
✅ Use 30-Minute or 4-Hour charts to identify high-confidence CISD zones
🎯 Then drop to the 1-Minute or 5-Minute chart for precise entry execution
This top-down approach aligns higher timeframe narrative with lower timeframe entry triggers, increasing your edge in both timing and context.
🧠 How to Use CISD Effectively
Bullish Scenario:
Watch for breaks above bearish delivery structures, especially if confirmed with:
Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
The Strat 2-2 reversal
MSS (Market Structure Shift)
Bearish Scenario:
Look for breaks below bullish delivery setups in alignment with:
BOS (Break of Structure)
The Strat 3-1-2
Bearish liquidity sweeps
Key Tip:
Solid line = Initial CISD (new shift)
Dashed line = Continuation of current trend
This visual distinction helps you determine when a market is shifting vs. extending.
📎 Disclaimer
This tool is provided for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial advice. Always backtest, paper trade, and manage risk responsibly.
📚 Credits
Original CISD framework developed by LuxAlgo
Real-time execution logic, alert enhancements, and intraday utility designed by SB (SamB)
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MMXM ICT [TradingFinder] Market Maker Model PO3 CHoCH/CSID + FVG🔵 Introduction
The MMXM Smart Money Reversal leverages key metrics such as SMT Divergence, Liquidity Sweep, HTF PD Array, Market Structure Shift (MSS) or (ChoCh), CISD, and Fair Value Gap (FVG) to identify critical turning points in the market. Designed for traders aiming to analyze the behavior of major market participants, this setup pinpoints strategic areas for making informed trading decisions.
The document introduces the MMXM model, a trading strategy that identifies market maker activity to predict price movements. The model operates across five distinct stages: original consolidation, price run, smart money reversal, accumulation/distribution, and completion. This systematic approach allows traders to differentiate between buyside and sellside curves, offering a structured framework for interpreting price action.
Market makers play a pivotal role in facilitating these movements by bridging liquidity gaps. They continuously quote bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices for assets, ensuring smooth trading conditions.
By maintaining liquidity, market makers prevent scenarios where buyers are left without sellers and vice versa, making their activity a cornerstone of the MMXM strategy.
SMT Divergence serves as the first signal of a potential trend reversal, arising from discrepancies between the movements of related assets or indices. This divergence is detected when two or more highly correlated assets or indices move in opposite directions, signaling a likely shift in market trends.
Liquidity Sweep occurs when the market targets liquidity in specific zones through false price movements. This process allows major market participants to execute their orders efficiently by collecting the necessary liquidity to enter or exit positions.
The HTF PD Array refers to premium and discount zones on higher timeframes. These zones highlight price levels where the market is in a premium (ideal for selling) or discount (ideal for buying). These areas are identified based on higher timeframe market behavior and guide traders toward lucrative opportunities.
Market Structure Shift (MSS), also referred to as ChoCh, indicates a change in market structure, often marked by breaking key support or resistance levels. This shift confirms the directional movement of the market, signaling the start of a new trend.
CISD (Change in State of Delivery) reflects a transition in price delivery mechanisms. Typically occurring after MSS, CISD confirms the continuation of price movement in the new direction.
Fair Value Gap (FVG) represents zones where price imbalance exists between buyers and sellers. These gaps often act as price targets for filling, offering traders opportunities for entry or exit.
By combining all these metrics, the Smart Money Reversal provides a comprehensive tool for analyzing market behavior and identifying key trading opportunities. It enables traders to anticipate the actions of major players and align their strategies accordingly.
MMBM :
MMSM :
🔵 How to Use
The Smart Money Reversal operates in two primary states: MMBM (Market Maker Buy Model) and MMSM (Market Maker Sell Model). Each state highlights critical structural changes in market trends, focusing on liquidity behavior and price reactions at key levels to offer precise and effective trading opportunities.
The MMXM model expands on this by identifying five distinct stages of market behavior: original consolidation, price run, smart money reversal, accumulation/distribution, and completion. These stages provide traders with a detailed roadmap for interpreting price action and anticipating market maker activity.
🟣 Market Maker Buy Model
In the MMBM state, the market transitions from a bearish trend to a bullish trend. Initially, SMT Divergence between related assets or indices reveals weaknesses in the bearish trend. Subsequently, a Liquidity Sweep collects liquidity from lower levels through false breakouts.
After this, the price reacts to discount zones identified in the HTF PD Array, where major market participants often execute buy orders. The market confirms the bullish trend with a Market Structure Shift (MSS) and a change in price delivery state (CISD). During this phase, an FVG emerges as a key trading opportunity. Traders can open long positions upon a pullback to this FVG zone, capitalizing on the bullish continuation.
🟣 Market Maker Sell Model
In the MMSM state, the market shifts from a bullish trend to a bearish trend. Here, SMT Divergence highlights weaknesses in the bullish trend. A Liquidity Sweep then gathers liquidity from higher levels.
The price reacts to premium zones identified in the HTF PD Array, where major sellers enter the market and reverse the price direction. A Market Structure Shift (MSS) and a change in delivery state (CISD) confirm the bearish trend. The FVG then acts as a target for the price. Traders can initiate short positions upon a pullback to this FVG zone, profiting from the bearish continuation.
Market makers actively bridge liquidity gaps throughout these stages, quoting continuous bid and ask prices for assets. This ensures that trades are executed seamlessly, even during periods of low market participation, and supports the structured progression of the MMXM model.
The price’s reaction to FVG zones in both states provides traders with opportunities to reduce risk and enhance precision. These pullbacks to FVG zones not only represent optimal entry points but also create avenues for maximizing returns with minimal risk.
🔵 Settings
Higher TimeFrame PD Array : Selects the timeframe for identifying premium/discount arrays on higher timeframes.
PD Array Period : Specifies the number of candles for identifying key swing points.
ATR Coefficient Threshold : Defines the threshold for acceptable volatility based on ATR.
Max Swing Back Method : Choose between analyzing all swings ("All") or a fixed number ("Custom").
Max Swing Back : Sets the maximum number of candles to consider for swing analysis (if "Custom" is selected).
Second Symbol for SMT : Specifies the second asset or index for detecting SMT divergence.
SMT Fractal Periods : Sets the number of candles required to identify SMT fractals.
FVG Validity Period : Defines the validity duration for FVG zones.
MSS Validity Period : Sets the validity duration for MSS zones.
FVG Filter : Activates filtering for FVG zones based on width.
FVG Filter Type : Selects the filtering level from "Very Aggressive" to "Very Defensive."
Mitigation Level FVG : Determines the level within the FVG zone (proximal, 50%, or distal) that price reacts to.
Demand FVG : Enables the display of demand FVG zones.
Supply FVG : Enables the display of supply FVG zones.
Zone Colors : Allows customization of colors for demand and supply FVG zones.
Bottom Line & Label : Enables or disables the SMT divergence line and label from the bottom.
Top Line & Label : Enables or disables the SMT divergence line and label from the top.
Show All HTF Levels : Displays all premium/discount levels on higher timeframes.
High/Low Levels : Activates the display of high/low levels.
Color Options : Customizes the colors for high/low lines and labels.
Show All MSS Levels : Enables display of all MSS zones.
High/Low MSS Levels : Activates the display of high/low MSS levels.
Color Options : Customizes the colors for MSS lines and labels.
🔵 Conclusion
The Smart Money Reversal model represents one of the most advanced tools for technical analysis, enabling traders to identify critical market turning points. By leveraging metrics such as SMT Divergence, Liquidity Sweep, HTF PD Array, MSS, CISD, and FVG, traders can predict future price movements with precision.
The price’s interaction with key zones such as PD Array and FVG, combined with pullbacks to imbalance areas, offers exceptional opportunities with favorable risk-to-reward ratios. This approach empowers traders to analyze the behavior of major market participants and adopt professional strategies for entry and exit.
By employing this analytical framework, traders can reduce errors, make more informed decisions, and capitalize on profitable opportunities. The Smart Money Reversal focuses on liquidity behavior and structural changes, making it an indispensable tool for financial market success.
Power Of 3 ICT 01 [TradingFinder] AMD ICT & SMC Accumulations🔵 Introduction
The ICT Power of 3 (PO3) strategy, developed by Michael J. Huddleston, known as the Inner Circle Trader, is a structured approach to analyzing daily market activity. This strategy divides the trading day into three distinct phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution.
Each phase represents a unique market behavior influenced by institutional traders, offering a clear framework for retail traders to align their strategies with market movements.
Accumulation (19:00 - 01:00 EST) takes place during low-volatility hours, as institutional traders accumulate orders. Manipulation (01:00 - 07:00 EST) involves false breakouts and liquidity traps designed to mislead retail traders. Finally, Distribution (07:00 - 13:00 EST) represents the active phase where significant market movements occur as institutions distribute their positions in line with the broader trend.
This indicator is built upon the Power of 3 principles to provide traders with a practical and visual tool for identifying these key phases. By using clear color coding and precise time zones, the indicator highlights critical price levels, such as highs and lows, helping traders to better understand market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions.
Incorporating the ICT AMD setup into daily analysis enables traders to anticipate market behavior, spot high-probability trade setups, and gain deeper insights into institutional trading strategies. With its focus on time-based price action, this indicator simplifies complex market structures, offering an effective tool for traders of all levels.
🔵 How to Use
The ICT Power of 3 (PO3) indicator is designed to help traders analyze daily market movements by visually identifying the three key phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution.
Here's how traders can effectively use the indicator :
🟣 Accumulation Phase (19:00 - 01:00 EST)
Purpose : Identify the range-bound activity where institutional players accumulate orders.
Trading Insight : Avoid placing trades during this phase, as price movements are typically limited. Instead, use this time to prepare for the potential direction of the market in the next phases.
🟣 Manipulation Phase (01:00 - 07:00 EST)
Purpose : Spot false breakouts and liquidity traps that mislead retail traders.
Trading Insight : Observe the market for price spikes beyond key support or resistance levels. These moves often reverse quickly, offering high-probability entry points in the opposite direction of the initial breakout.
🟣 Distribution Phase (07:00 - 13:00 EST)
Purpose : Detect the main price movement of the day, driven by institutional distribution.
Trading Insight : Enter trades in the direction of the trend established during this phase. Look for confirmations such as breakouts or strong directional moves that align with broader market sentiment
🔵 Settings
Show or Hide Phases :mDecide whether to display Accumulation, Manipulation, or Distribution.
Adjust the session times for each phase :
Accumulation: 1900-0100 EST
Manipulation: 0100-0700 EST
Distribution: 0700-1300 EST
Modify Visualization : Customize how the indicator looks by changing settings like colors and transparency.
🔵 Conclusion
The ICT Power of 3 (PO3) indicator is a powerful tool for traders seeking to understand and leverage market structure based on time and price dynamics. By visually highlighting the three key phases—Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution—this indicator simplifies the complex movements of institutional trading strategies.
With its customizable settings and clear representation of market behavior, the indicator is suitable for traders at all levels, helping them anticipate market trends and make more informed decisions.
Whether you're identifying entry points in the Accumulation phase, navigating false moves during Manipulation, or capitalizing on trends in the Distribution phase, this tool provides valuable insights to enhance your trading performance.
By integrating this indicator into your analysis, you can better align your strategies with institutional movements and improve your overall trading outcomes.
Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave [Loxx]As the financial markets become increasingly complex and data-driven, traders and analysts must leverage powerful tools to gain insights and make informed decisions. One such tool is the Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave indicator, a sophisticated technical analysis indicator that helps identify cyclical patterns in financial data. This powerful tool is capable of detecting cyclical patterns in financial data, helping traders to make better predictions and optimize their trading strategies. With its unique combination of mathematical algorithms and advanced charting capabilities, this indicator has the potential to revolutionize the way we approach financial modeling and trading.
*** To decrease the load time of this indicator, only XX many bars back will render to the chart. You can control this value with the setting "Number of Bars to Render". This doesn't have anything to do with repainting or the indicator being endpointed***
█ Brief Overview of the Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave
The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave is a sophisticated technical analysis tool that utilizes the Goertzel algorithm to analyze and visualize cyclical components within a financial time series. By identifying these cycles and their characteristics, the indicator aims to provide valuable insights into the market's underlying price movements, which could potentially be used for making informed trading decisions.
The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave is considered a non-repainting and endpointed indicator. This means that once a value has been calculated for a specific bar, that value will not change in subsequent bars, and the indicator is designed to have a clear start and end point. This is an important characteristic for indicators used in technical analysis, as it allows traders to make informed decisions based on historical data without the risk of hindsight bias or future changes in the indicator's values. This means traders can use this indicator trading purposes.
The repainting version of this indicator with forecasting, cycle selection/elimination options, and data output table can be found here:
Goertzel Browser
The primary purpose of this indicator is to:
1. Detect and analyze the dominant cycles present in the price data.
2. Reconstruct and visualize the composite wave based on the detected cycles.
To achieve this, the indicator performs several tasks:
1. Detrending the price data: The indicator preprocesses the price data using various detrending techniques, such as Hodrick-Prescott filters, zero-lag moving averages, and linear regression, to remove the underlying trend and focus on the cyclical components.
2. Applying the Goertzel algorithm: The indicator applies the Goertzel algorithm to the detrended price data, identifying the dominant cycles and their characteristics, such as amplitude, phase, and cycle strength.
3. Constructing the composite wave: The indicator reconstructs the composite wave by combining the detected cycles, either by using a user-defined list of cycles or by selecting the top N cycles based on their amplitude or cycle strength.
4. Visualizing the composite wave: The indicator plots the composite wave, using solid lines for the cycles. The color of the lines indicates whether the wave is increasing or decreasing.
This indicator is a powerful tool that employs the Goertzel algorithm to analyze and visualize the cyclical components within a financial time series. By providing insights into the underlying price movements, the indicator aims to assist traders in making more informed decisions.
█ What is the Goertzel Algorithm?
The Goertzel algorithm, named after Gerald Goertzel, is a digital signal processing technique that is used to efficiently compute individual terms of the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). It was first introduced in 1958, and since then, it has found various applications in the fields of engineering, mathematics, and physics.
The Goertzel algorithm is primarily used to detect specific frequency components within a digital signal, making it particularly useful in applications where only a few frequency components are of interest. The algorithm is computationally efficient, as it requires fewer calculations than the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) when detecting a small number of frequency components. This efficiency makes the Goertzel algorithm a popular choice in applications such as:
1. Telecommunications: The Goertzel algorithm is used for decoding Dual-Tone Multi-Frequency (DTMF) signals, which are the tones generated when pressing buttons on a telephone keypad. By identifying specific frequency components, the algorithm can accurately determine which button has been pressed.
2. Audio processing: The algorithm can be used to detect specific pitches or harmonics in an audio signal, making it useful in applications like pitch detection and tuning musical instruments.
3. Vibration analysis: In the field of mechanical engineering, the Goertzel algorithm can be applied to analyze vibrations in rotating machinery, helping to identify faulty components or signs of wear.
4. Power system analysis: The algorithm can be used to measure harmonic content in power systems, allowing engineers to assess power quality and detect potential issues.
The Goertzel algorithm is used in these applications because it offers several advantages over other methods, such as the FFT:
1. Computational efficiency: The Goertzel algorithm requires fewer calculations when detecting a small number of frequency components, making it more computationally efficient than the FFT in these cases.
2. Real-time analysis: The algorithm can be implemented in a streaming fashion, allowing for real-time analysis of signals, which is crucial in applications like telecommunications and audio processing.
3. Memory efficiency: The Goertzel algorithm requires less memory than the FFT, as it only computes the frequency components of interest.
4. Precision: The algorithm is less susceptible to numerical errors compared to the FFT, ensuring more accurate results in applications where precision is essential.
The Goertzel algorithm is an efficient digital signal processing technique that is primarily used to detect specific frequency components within a signal. Its computational efficiency, real-time capabilities, and precision make it an attractive choice for various applications, including telecommunications, audio processing, vibration analysis, and power system analysis. The algorithm has been widely adopted since its introduction in 1958 and continues to be an essential tool in the fields of engineering, mathematics, and physics.
█ Goertzel Algorithm in Quantitative Finance: In-Depth Analysis and Applications
The Goertzel algorithm, initially designed for signal processing in telecommunications, has gained significant traction in the financial industry due to its efficient frequency detection capabilities. In quantitative finance, the Goertzel algorithm has been utilized for uncovering hidden market cycles, developing data-driven trading strategies, and optimizing risk management. This section delves deeper into the applications of the Goertzel algorithm in finance, particularly within the context of quantitative trading and analysis.
Unveiling Hidden Market Cycles:
Market cycles are prevalent in financial markets and arise from various factors, such as economic conditions, investor psychology, and market participant behavior. The Goertzel algorithm's ability to detect and isolate specific frequencies in price data helps trader analysts identify hidden market cycles that may otherwise go unnoticed. By examining the amplitude, phase, and periodicity of each cycle, traders can better understand the underlying market structure and dynamics, enabling them to develop more informed and effective trading strategies.
Developing Quantitative Trading Strategies:
The Goertzel algorithm's versatility allows traders to incorporate its insights into a wide range of trading strategies. By identifying the dominant market cycles in a financial instrument's price data, traders can create data-driven strategies that capitalize on the cyclical nature of markets.
For instance, a trader may develop a mean-reversion strategy that takes advantage of the identified cycles. By establishing positions when the price deviates from the predicted cycle, the trader can profit from the subsequent reversion to the cycle's mean. Similarly, a momentum-based strategy could be designed to exploit the persistence of a dominant cycle by entering positions that align with the cycle's direction.
Enhancing Risk Management:
The Goertzel algorithm plays a vital role in risk management for quantitative strategies. By analyzing the cyclical components of a financial instrument's price data, traders can gain insights into the potential risks associated with their trading strategies.
By monitoring the amplitude and phase of dominant cycles, a trader can detect changes in market dynamics that may pose risks to their positions. For example, a sudden increase in amplitude may indicate heightened volatility, prompting the trader to adjust position sizing or employ hedging techniques to protect their portfolio. Additionally, changes in phase alignment could signal a potential shift in market sentiment, necessitating adjustments to the trading strategy.
Expanding Quantitative Toolkits:
Traders can augment the Goertzel algorithm's insights by combining it with other quantitative techniques, creating a more comprehensive and sophisticated analysis framework. For example, machine learning algorithms, such as neural networks or support vector machines, could be trained on features extracted from the Goertzel algorithm to predict future price movements more accurately.
Furthermore, the Goertzel algorithm can be integrated with other technical analysis tools, such as moving averages or oscillators, to enhance their effectiveness. By applying these tools to the identified cycles, traders can generate more robust and reliable trading signals.
The Goertzel algorithm offers invaluable benefits to quantitative finance practitioners by uncovering hidden market cycles, aiding in the development of data-driven trading strategies, and improving risk management. By leveraging the insights provided by the Goertzel algorithm and integrating it with other quantitative techniques, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and devise more effective trading strategies.
█ Indicator Inputs
src: This is the source data for the analysis, typically the closing price of the financial instrument.
detrendornot: This input determines the method used for detrending the source data. Detrending is the process of removing the underlying trend from the data to focus on the cyclical components.
The available options are:
hpsmthdt: Detrend using Hodrick-Prescott filter centered moving average.
zlagsmthdt: Detrend using zero-lag moving average centered moving average.
logZlagRegression: Detrend using logarithmic zero-lag linear regression.
hpsmth: Detrend using Hodrick-Prescott filter.
zlagsmth: Detrend using zero-lag moving average.
DT_HPper1 and DT_HPper2: These inputs define the period range for the Hodrick-Prescott filter centered moving average when detrendornot is set to hpsmthdt.
DT_ZLper1 and DT_ZLper2: These inputs define the period range for the zero-lag moving average centered moving average when detrendornot is set to zlagsmthdt.
DT_RegZLsmoothPer: This input defines the period for the zero-lag moving average used in logarithmic zero-lag linear regression when detrendornot is set to logZlagRegression.
HPsmoothPer: This input defines the period for the Hodrick-Prescott filter when detrendornot is set to hpsmth.
ZLMAsmoothPer: This input defines the period for the zero-lag moving average when detrendornot is set to zlagsmth.
MaxPer: This input sets the maximum period for the Goertzel algorithm to search for cycles.
squaredAmp: This boolean input determines whether the amplitude should be squared in the Goertzel algorithm.
useAddition: This boolean input determines whether the Goertzel algorithm should use addition for combining the cycles.
useCosine: This boolean input determines whether the Goertzel algorithm should use cosine waves instead of sine waves.
UseCycleStrength: This boolean input determines whether the Goertzel algorithm should compute the cycle strength, which is a normalized measure of the cycle's amplitude.
WindowSizePast: These inputs define the window size for the composite wave.
FilterBartels: This boolean input determines whether Bartel's test should be applied to filter out non-significant cycles.
BartNoCycles: This input sets the number of cycles to be used in Bartel's test.
BartSmoothPer: This input sets the period for the moving average used in Bartel's test.
BartSigLimit: This input sets the significance limit for Bartel's test, below which cycles are considered insignificant.
SortBartels: This boolean input determines whether the cycles should be sorted by their Bartel's test results.
StartAtCycle: This input determines the starting index for selecting the top N cycles when UseCycleList is set to false. This allows you to skip a certain number of cycles from the top before selecting the desired number of cycles.
UseTopCycles: This input sets the number of top cycles to use for constructing the composite wave when UseCycleList is set to false. The cycles are ranked based on their amplitudes or cycle strengths, depending on the UseCycleStrength input.
SubtractNoise: This boolean input determines whether to subtract the noise (remaining cycles) from the composite wave. If set to true, the composite wave will only include the top N cycles specified by UseTopCycles.
█ Exploring Auxiliary Functions
The following functions demonstrate advanced techniques for analyzing financial markets, including zero-lag moving averages, Bartels probability, detrending, and Hodrick-Prescott filtering. This section examines each function in detail, explaining their purpose, methodology, and applications in finance. We will examine how each function contributes to the overall performance and effectiveness of the indicator and how they work together to create a powerful analytical tool.
Zero-Lag Moving Average:
The zero-lag moving average function is designed to minimize the lag typically associated with moving averages. This is achieved through a two-step weighted linear regression process that emphasizes more recent data points. The function calculates a linearly weighted moving average (LWMA) on the input data and then applies another LWMA on the result. By doing this, the function creates a moving average that closely follows the price action, reducing the lag and improving the responsiveness of the indicator.
The zero-lag moving average function is used in the indicator to provide a responsive, low-lag smoothing of the input data. This function helps reduce the noise and fluctuations in the data, making it easier to identify and analyze underlying trends and patterns. By minimizing the lag associated with traditional moving averages, this function allows the indicator to react more quickly to changes in market conditions, providing timely signals and improving the overall effectiveness of the indicator.
Bartels Probability:
The Bartels probability function calculates the probability of a given cycle being significant in a time series. It uses a mathematical test called the Bartels test to assess the significance of cycles detected in the data. The function calculates coefficients for each detected cycle and computes an average amplitude and an expected amplitude. By comparing these values, the Bartels probability is derived, indicating the likelihood of a cycle's significance. This information can help in identifying and analyzing dominant cycles in financial markets.
The Bartels probability function is incorporated into the indicator to assess the significance of detected cycles in the input data. By calculating the Bartels probability for each cycle, the indicator can prioritize the most significant cycles and focus on the market dynamics that are most relevant to the current trading environment. This function enhances the indicator's ability to identify dominant market cycles, improving its predictive power and aiding in the development of effective trading strategies.
Detrend Logarithmic Zero-Lag Regression:
The detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function is used for detrending data while minimizing lag. It combines a zero-lag moving average with a linear regression detrending method. The function first calculates the zero-lag moving average of the logarithm of input data and then applies a linear regression to remove the trend. By detrending the data, the function isolates the cyclical components, making it easier to analyze and interpret the underlying market dynamics.
The detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function is used in the indicator to isolate the cyclical components of the input data. By detrending the data, the function enables the indicator to focus on the cyclical movements in the market, making it easier to analyze and interpret market dynamics. This function is essential for identifying cyclical patterns and understanding the interactions between different market cycles, which can inform trading decisions and enhance overall market understanding.
Bartels Cycle Significance Test:
The Bartels cycle significance test is a function that combines the Bartels probability function and the detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function to assess the significance of detected cycles. The function calculates the Bartels probability for each cycle and stores the results in an array. By analyzing the probability values, traders and analysts can identify the most significant cycles in the data, which can be used to develop trading strategies and improve market understanding.
The Bartels cycle significance test function is integrated into the indicator to provide a comprehensive analysis of the significance of detected cycles. By combining the Bartels probability function and the detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function, this test evaluates the significance of each cycle and stores the results in an array. The indicator can then use this information to prioritize the most significant cycles and focus on the most relevant market dynamics. This function enhances the indicator's ability to identify and analyze dominant market cycles, providing valuable insights for trading and market analysis.
Hodrick-Prescott Filter:
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a popular technique used to separate the trend and cyclical components of a time series. The function applies a smoothing parameter to the input data and calculates a smoothed series using a two-sided filter. This smoothed series represents the trend component, which can be subtracted from the original data to obtain the cyclical component. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is commonly used in economics and finance to analyze economic data and financial market trends.
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is incorporated into the indicator to separate the trend and cyclical components of the input data. By applying the filter to the data, the indicator can isolate the trend component, which can be used to analyze long-term market trends and inform trading decisions. Additionally, the cyclical component can be used to identify shorter-term market dynamics and provide insights into potential trading opportunities. The inclusion of the Hodrick-Prescott filter adds another layer of analysis to the indicator, making it more versatile and comprehensive.
Detrending Options: Detrend Centered Moving Average:
The detrend centered moving average function provides different detrending methods, including the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the zero-lag moving average, based on the selected detrending method. The function calculates two sets of smoothed values using the chosen method and subtracts one set from the other to obtain a detrended series. By offering multiple detrending options, this function allows traders and analysts to select the most appropriate method for their specific needs and preferences.
The detrend centered moving average function is integrated into the indicator to provide users with multiple detrending options, including the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the zero-lag moving average. By offering multiple detrending methods, the indicator allows users to customize the analysis to their specific needs and preferences, enhancing the indicator's overall utility and adaptability. This function ensures that the indicator can cater to a wide range of trading styles and objectives, making it a valuable tool for a diverse group of market participants.
The auxiliary functions functions discussed in this section demonstrate the power and versatility of mathematical techniques in analyzing financial markets. By understanding and implementing these functions, traders and analysts can gain valuable insights into market dynamics, improve their trading strategies, and make more informed decisions. The combination of zero-lag moving averages, Bartels probability, detrending methods, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter provides a comprehensive toolkit for analyzing and interpreting financial data. The integration of advanced functions in a financial indicator creates a powerful and versatile analytical tool that can provide valuable insights into financial markets. By combining the zero-lag moving average,
█ In-Depth Analysis of the Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave Code
The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave code is an implementation of the Goertzel Algorithm, an efficient technique to perform spectral analysis on a signal. The code is designed to detect and analyze dominant cycles within a given financial market data set. This section will provide an extremely detailed explanation of the code, its structure, functions, and intended purpose.
Function signature and input parameters:
The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave function accepts numerous input parameters for customization, including source data (src), the current bar (forBar), sample size (samplesize), period (per), squared amplitude flag (squaredAmp), addition flag (useAddition), cosine flag (useCosine), cycle strength flag (UseCycleStrength), past sizes (WindowSizePast), Bartels filter flag (FilterBartels), Bartels-related parameters (BartNoCycles, BartSmoothPer, BartSigLimit), sorting flag (SortBartels), and output buffers (goeWorkPast, cyclebuffer, amplitudebuffer, phasebuffer, cycleBartelsBuffer).
Initializing variables and arrays:
The code initializes several float arrays (goeWork1, goeWork2, goeWork3, goeWork4) with the same length as twice the period (2 * per). These arrays store intermediate results during the execution of the algorithm.
Preprocessing input data:
The input data (src) undergoes preprocessing to remove linear trends. This step enhances the algorithm's ability to focus on cyclical components in the data. The linear trend is calculated by finding the slope between the first and last values of the input data within the sample.
Iterative calculation of Goertzel coefficients:
The core of the Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave algorithm lies in the iterative calculation of Goertzel coefficients for each frequency bin. These coefficients represent the spectral content of the input data at different frequencies. The code iterates through the range of frequencies, calculating the Goertzel coefficients using a nested loop structure.
Cycle strength computation:
The code calculates the cycle strength based on the Goertzel coefficients. This is an optional step, controlled by the UseCycleStrength flag. The cycle strength provides information on the relative influence of each cycle on the data per bar, considering both amplitude and cycle length. The algorithm computes the cycle strength either by squaring the amplitude (controlled by squaredAmp flag) or using the actual amplitude values.
Phase calculation:
The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave code computes the phase of each cycle, which represents the position of the cycle within the input data. The phase is calculated using the arctangent function (math.atan) based on the ratio of the imaginary and real components of the Goertzel coefficients.
Peak detection and cycle extraction:
The algorithm performs peak detection on the computed amplitudes or cycle strengths to identify dominant cycles. It stores the detected cycles in the cyclebuffer array, along with their corresponding amplitudes and phases in the amplitudebuffer and phasebuffer arrays, respectively.
Sorting cycles by amplitude or cycle strength:
The code sorts the detected cycles based on their amplitude or cycle strength in descending order. This allows the algorithm to prioritize cycles with the most significant impact on the input data.
Bartels cycle significance test:
If the FilterBartels flag is set, the code performs a Bartels cycle significance test on the detected cycles. This test determines the statistical significance of each cycle and filters out the insignificant cycles. The significant cycles are stored in the cycleBartelsBuffer array. If the SortBartels flag is set, the code sorts the significant cycles based on their Bartels significance values.
Waveform calculation:
The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave code calculates the waveform of the significant cycles for specified time windows. The windows are defined by the WindowSizePast parameters, respectively. The algorithm uses either cosine or sine functions (controlled by the useCosine flag) to calculate the waveforms for each cycle. The useAddition flag determines whether the waveforms should be added or subtracted.
Storing waveforms in a matrix:
The calculated waveforms for the cycle is stored in the matrix - goeWorkPast. This matrix holds the waveforms for the specified time windows. Each row in the matrix represents a time window position, and each column corresponds to a cycle.
Returning the number of cycles:
The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave function returns the total number of detected cycles (number_of_cycles) after processing the input data. This information can be used to further analyze the results or to visualize the detected cycles.
The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave code is a comprehensive implementation of the Goertzel Algorithm, specifically designed for detecting and analyzing dominant cycles within financial market data. The code offers a high level of customization, allowing users to fine-tune the algorithm based on their specific needs. The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave's combination of preprocessing, iterative calculations, cycle extraction, sorting, significance testing, and waveform calculation makes it a powerful tool for understanding cyclical components in financial data.
█ Generating and Visualizing Composite Waveform
The indicator calculates and visualizes the composite waveform for specified time windows based on the detected cycles. Here's a detailed explanation of this process:
Updating WindowSizePast:
The WindowSizePast is updated to ensure they are at least twice the MaxPer (maximum period).
Initializing matrices and arrays:
The matrix goeWorkPast is initialized to store the Goertzel results for specified time windows. Multiple arrays are also initialized to store cycle, amplitude, phase, and Bartels information.
Preparing the source data (srcVal) array:
The source data is copied into an array, srcVal, and detrended using one of the selected methods (hpsmthdt, zlagsmthdt, logZlagRegression, hpsmth, or zlagsmth).
Goertzel function call:
The Goertzel function is called to analyze the detrended source data and extract cycle information. The output, number_of_cycles, contains the number of detected cycles.
Initializing arrays for waveforms:
The goertzel array is initialized to store the endpoint Goertzel.
Calculating composite waveform (goertzel array):
The composite waveform is calculated by summing the selected cycles (either from the user-defined cycle list or the top cycles) and optionally subtracting the noise component.
Drawing composite waveform (pvlines):
The composite waveform is drawn on the chart using solid lines. The color of the lines is determined by the direction of the waveform (green for upward, red for downward).
To summarize, this indicator generates a composite waveform based on the detected cycles in the financial data. It calculates the composite waveforms and visualizes them on the chart using colored lines.
█ Enhancing the Goertzel Algorithm-Based Script for Financial Modeling and Trading
The Goertzel algorithm-based script for detecting dominant cycles in financial data is a powerful tool for financial modeling and trading. It provides valuable insights into the past behavior of these cycles. However, as with any algorithm, there is always room for improvement. This section discusses potential enhancements to the existing script to make it even more robust and versatile for financial modeling, general trading, advanced trading, and high-frequency finance trading.
Enhancements for Financial Modeling
Data preprocessing: One way to improve the script's performance for financial modeling is to introduce more advanced data preprocessing techniques. This could include removing outliers, handling missing data, and normalizing the data to ensure consistent and accurate results.
Additional detrending and smoothing methods: Incorporating more sophisticated detrending and smoothing techniques, such as wavelet transform or empirical mode decomposition, can help improve the script's ability to accurately identify cycles and trends in the data.
Machine learning integration: Integrating machine learning techniques, such as artificial neural networks or support vector machines, can help enhance the script's predictive capabilities, leading to more accurate financial models.
Enhancements for General and Advanced Trading
Customizable indicator integration: Allowing users to integrate their own technical indicators can help improve the script's effectiveness for both general and advanced trading. By enabling the combination of the dominant cycle information with other technical analysis tools, traders can develop more comprehensive trading strategies.
Risk management and position sizing: Incorporating risk management and position sizing functionality into the script can help traders better manage their trades and control potential losses. This can be achieved by calculating the optimal position size based on the user's risk tolerance and account size.
Multi-timeframe analysis: Enhancing the script to perform multi-timeframe analysis can provide traders with a more holistic view of market trends and cycles. By identifying dominant cycles on different timeframes, traders can gain insights into the potential confluence of cycles and make better-informed trading decisions.
Enhancements for High-Frequency Finance Trading
Algorithm optimization: To ensure the script's suitability for high-frequency finance trading, optimizing the algorithm for faster execution is crucial. This can be achieved by employing efficient data structures and refining the calculation methods to minimize computational complexity.
Real-time data streaming: Integrating real-time data streaming capabilities into the script can help high-frequency traders react to market changes more quickly. By continuously updating the cycle information based on real-time market data, traders can adapt their strategies accordingly and capitalize on short-term market fluctuations.
Order execution and trade management: To fully leverage the script's capabilities for high-frequency trading, implementing functionality for automated order execution and trade management is essential. This can include features such as stop-loss and take-profit orders, trailing stops, and automated trade exit strategies.
While the existing Goertzel algorithm-based script is a valuable tool for detecting dominant cycles in financial data, there are several potential enhancements that can make it even more powerful for financial modeling, general trading, advanced trading, and high-frequency finance trading. By incorporating these improvements, the script can become a more versatile and effective tool for traders and financial analysts alike.
█ Understanding the Limitations of the Goertzel Algorithm
While the Goertzel algorithm-based script for detecting dominant cycles in financial data provides valuable insights, it is important to be aware of its limitations and drawbacks. Some of the key drawbacks of this indicator are:
Lagging nature:
As with many other technical indicators, the Goertzel algorithm-based script can suffer from lagging effects, meaning that it may not immediately react to real-time market changes. This lag can lead to late entries and exits, potentially resulting in reduced profitability or increased losses.
Parameter sensitivity:
The performance of the script can be sensitive to the chosen parameters, such as the detrending methods, smoothing techniques, and cycle detection settings. Improper parameter selection may lead to inaccurate cycle detection or increased false signals, which can negatively impact trading performance.
Complexity:
The Goertzel algorithm itself is relatively complex, making it difficult for novice traders or those unfamiliar with the concept of cycle analysis to fully understand and effectively utilize the script. This complexity can also make it challenging to optimize the script for specific trading styles or market conditions.
Overfitting risk:
As with any data-driven approach, there is a risk of overfitting when using the Goertzel algorithm-based script. Overfitting occurs when a model becomes too specific to the historical data it was trained on, leading to poor performance on new, unseen data. This can result in misleading signals and reduced trading performance.
Limited applicability:
The Goertzel algorithm-based script may not be suitable for all markets, trading styles, or timeframes. Its effectiveness in detecting cycles may be limited in certain market conditions, such as during periods of extreme volatility or low liquidity.
While the Goertzel algorithm-based script offers valuable insights into dominant cycles in financial data, it is essential to consider its drawbacks and limitations when incorporating it into a trading strategy. Traders should always use the script in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools, as well as proper risk management, to make well-informed trading decisions.
█ Interpreting Results
The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave indicator can be interpreted by analyzing the plotted lines. The indicator plots two lines: composite waves. The composite wave represents the composite wave of the price data.
The composite wave line displays a solid line, with green indicating a bullish trend and red indicating a bearish trend.
Interpreting the Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave indicator involves identifying the trend of the composite wave lines and matching them with the corresponding bullish or bearish color.
█ Conclusion
The Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave indicator is a powerful tool for identifying and analyzing cyclical patterns in financial markets. Its ability to detect multiple cycles of varying frequencies and strengths make it a valuable addition to any trader's technical analysis toolkit. However, it is important to keep in mind that the Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave indicator should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and fundamental analysis to achieve the best results. With continued refinement and development, the Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave indicator has the potential to become a highly effective tool for financial modeling, general trading, advanced trading, and high-frequency finance trading. Its accuracy and versatility make it a promising candidate for further research and development.
█ Footnotes
What is the Bartels Test for Cycle Significance?
The Bartels Cycle Significance Test is a statistical method that determines whether the peaks and troughs of a time series are statistically significant. The test is named after its inventor, George Bartels, who developed it in the mid-20th century.
The Bartels test is designed to analyze the cyclical components of a time series, which can help traders and analysts identify trends and cycles in financial markets. The test calculates a Bartels statistic, which measures the degree of non-randomness or autocorrelation in the time series.
The Bartels statistic is calculated by first splitting the time series into two halves and calculating the range of the peaks and troughs in each half. The test then compares these ranges using a t-test, which measures the significance of the difference between the two ranges.
If the Bartels statistic is greater than a critical value, it indicates that the peaks and troughs in the time series are non-random and that there is a significant cyclical component to the data. Conversely, if the Bartels statistic is less than the critical value, it suggests that the peaks and troughs are random and that there is no significant cyclical component.
The Bartels Cycle Significance Test is particularly useful in financial analysis because it can help traders and analysts identify significant cycles in asset prices, which can in turn inform investment decisions. However, it is important to note that the test is not perfect and can produce false signals in certain situations, particularly in noisy or volatile markets. Therefore, it is always recommended to use the test in conjunction with other technical and fundamental indicators to confirm trends and cycles.
Deep-dive into the Hodrick-Prescott Fitler
The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a statistical tool used in economics and finance to separate a time series into two components: a trend component and a cyclical component. It is a powerful tool for identifying long-term trends in economic and financial data and is widely used by economists, central banks, and financial institutions around the world.
The HP filter was first introduced in the 1990s by economists Robert Hodrick and Edward Prescott. It is a simple, two-parameter filter that separates a time series into a trend component and a cyclical component. The trend component represents the long-term behavior of the data, while the cyclical component captures the shorter-term fluctuations around the trend.
The HP filter works by minimizing the following objective function:
Minimize: (Sum of Squared Deviations) + λ (Sum of Squared Second Differences)
Where:
1. The first term represents the deviation of the data from the trend.
2. The second term represents the smoothness of the trend.
3. λ is a smoothing parameter that determines the degree of smoothness of the trend.
The smoothing parameter λ is typically set to a value between 100 and 1600, depending on the frequency of the data. Higher values of λ lead to a smoother trend, while lower values lead to a more volatile trend.
The HP filter has several advantages over other smoothing techniques. It is a non-parametric method, meaning that it does not make any assumptions about the underlying distribution of the data. It also allows for easy comparison of trends across different time series and can be used with data of any frequency.
However, the HP filter also has some limitations. It assumes that the trend is a smooth function, which may not be the case in some situations. It can also be sensitive to changes in the smoothing parameter λ, which may result in different trends for the same data. Additionally, the filter may produce unrealistic trends for very short time series.
Despite these limitations, the HP filter remains a valuable tool for analyzing economic and financial data. It is widely used by central banks and financial institutions to monitor long-term trends in the economy, and it can be used to identify turning points in the business cycle. The filter can also be used to analyze asset prices, exchange rates, and other financial variables.
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a powerful tool for analyzing economic and financial data. It separates a time series into a trend component and a cyclical component, allowing for easy identification of long-term trends and turning points in the business cycle. While it has some limitations, it remains a valuable tool for economists, central banks, and financial institutions around the world.
Goertzel Browser [Loxx]As the financial markets become increasingly complex and data-driven, traders and analysts must leverage powerful tools to gain insights and make informed decisions. One such tool is the Goertzel Browser indicator, a sophisticated technical analysis indicator that helps identify cyclical patterns in financial data. This powerful tool is capable of detecting cyclical patterns in financial data, helping traders to make better predictions and optimize their trading strategies. With its unique combination of mathematical algorithms and advanced charting capabilities, this indicator has the potential to revolutionize the way we approach financial modeling and trading.
█ Brief Overview of the Goertzel Browser
The Goertzel Browser is a sophisticated technical analysis tool that utilizes the Goertzel algorithm to analyze and visualize cyclical components within a financial time series. By identifying these cycles and their characteristics, the indicator aims to provide valuable insights into the market's underlying price movements, which could potentially be used for making informed trading decisions.
The primary purpose of this indicator is to:
1. Detect and analyze the dominant cycles present in the price data.
2. Reconstruct and visualize the composite wave based on the detected cycles.
3. Project the composite wave into the future, providing a potential roadmap for upcoming price movements.
To achieve this, the indicator performs several tasks:
1. Detrending the price data: The indicator preprocesses the price data using various detrending techniques, such as Hodrick-Prescott filters, zero-lag moving averages, and linear regression, to remove the underlying trend and focus on the cyclical components.
2. Applying the Goertzel algorithm: The indicator applies the Goertzel algorithm to the detrended price data, identifying the dominant cycles and their characteristics, such as amplitude, phase, and cycle strength.
3. Constructing the composite wave: The indicator reconstructs the composite wave by combining the detected cycles, either by using a user-defined list of cycles or by selecting the top N cycles based on their amplitude or cycle strength.
4. Visualizing the composite wave: The indicator plots the composite wave, using solid lines for the past and dotted lines for the future projections. The color of the lines indicates whether the wave is increasing or decreasing.
5. Displaying cycle information: The indicator provides a table that displays detailed information about the detected cycles, including their rank, period, Bartel's test results, amplitude, and phase.
This indicator is a powerful tool that employs the Goertzel algorithm to analyze and visualize the cyclical components within a financial time series. By providing insights into the underlying price movements and their potential future trajectory, the indicator aims to assist traders in making more informed decisions.
█ What is the Goertzel Algorithm?
The Goertzel algorithm, named after Gerald Goertzel, is a digital signal processing technique that is used to efficiently compute individual terms of the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). It was first introduced in 1958, and since then, it has found various applications in the fields of engineering, mathematics, and physics.
The Goertzel algorithm is primarily used to detect specific frequency components within a digital signal, making it particularly useful in applications where only a few frequency components are of interest. The algorithm is computationally efficient, as it requires fewer calculations than the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) when detecting a small number of frequency components. This efficiency makes the Goertzel algorithm a popular choice in applications such as:
1. Telecommunications: The Goertzel algorithm is used for decoding Dual-Tone Multi-Frequency (DTMF) signals, which are the tones generated when pressing buttons on a telephone keypad. By identifying specific frequency components, the algorithm can accurately determine which button has been pressed.
2. Audio processing: The algorithm can be used to detect specific pitches or harmonics in an audio signal, making it useful in applications like pitch detection and tuning musical instruments.
3. Vibration analysis: In the field of mechanical engineering, the Goertzel algorithm can be applied to analyze vibrations in rotating machinery, helping to identify faulty components or signs of wear.
4. Power system analysis: The algorithm can be used to measure harmonic content in power systems, allowing engineers to assess power quality and detect potential issues.
The Goertzel algorithm is used in these applications because it offers several advantages over other methods, such as the FFT:
1. Computational efficiency: The Goertzel algorithm requires fewer calculations when detecting a small number of frequency components, making it more computationally efficient than the FFT in these cases.
2. Real-time analysis: The algorithm can be implemented in a streaming fashion, allowing for real-time analysis of signals, which is crucial in applications like telecommunications and audio processing.
3. Memory efficiency: The Goertzel algorithm requires less memory than the FFT, as it only computes the frequency components of interest.
4. Precision: The algorithm is less susceptible to numerical errors compared to the FFT, ensuring more accurate results in applications where precision is essential.
The Goertzel algorithm is an efficient digital signal processing technique that is primarily used to detect specific frequency components within a signal. Its computational efficiency, real-time capabilities, and precision make it an attractive choice for various applications, including telecommunications, audio processing, vibration analysis, and power system analysis. The algorithm has been widely adopted since its introduction in 1958 and continues to be an essential tool in the fields of engineering, mathematics, and physics.
█ Goertzel Algorithm in Quantitative Finance: In-Depth Analysis and Applications
The Goertzel algorithm, initially designed for signal processing in telecommunications, has gained significant traction in the financial industry due to its efficient frequency detection capabilities. In quantitative finance, the Goertzel algorithm has been utilized for uncovering hidden market cycles, developing data-driven trading strategies, and optimizing risk management. This section delves deeper into the applications of the Goertzel algorithm in finance, particularly within the context of quantitative trading and analysis.
Unveiling Hidden Market Cycles:
Market cycles are prevalent in financial markets and arise from various factors, such as economic conditions, investor psychology, and market participant behavior. The Goertzel algorithm's ability to detect and isolate specific frequencies in price data helps trader analysts identify hidden market cycles that may otherwise go unnoticed. By examining the amplitude, phase, and periodicity of each cycle, traders can better understand the underlying market structure and dynamics, enabling them to develop more informed and effective trading strategies.
Developing Quantitative Trading Strategies:
The Goertzel algorithm's versatility allows traders to incorporate its insights into a wide range of trading strategies. By identifying the dominant market cycles in a financial instrument's price data, traders can create data-driven strategies that capitalize on the cyclical nature of markets.
For instance, a trader may develop a mean-reversion strategy that takes advantage of the identified cycles. By establishing positions when the price deviates from the predicted cycle, the trader can profit from the subsequent reversion to the cycle's mean. Similarly, a momentum-based strategy could be designed to exploit the persistence of a dominant cycle by entering positions that align with the cycle's direction.
Enhancing Risk Management:
The Goertzel algorithm plays a vital role in risk management for quantitative strategies. By analyzing the cyclical components of a financial instrument's price data, traders can gain insights into the potential risks associated with their trading strategies.
By monitoring the amplitude and phase of dominant cycles, a trader can detect changes in market dynamics that may pose risks to their positions. For example, a sudden increase in amplitude may indicate heightened volatility, prompting the trader to adjust position sizing or employ hedging techniques to protect their portfolio. Additionally, changes in phase alignment could signal a potential shift in market sentiment, necessitating adjustments to the trading strategy.
Expanding Quantitative Toolkits:
Traders can augment the Goertzel algorithm's insights by combining it with other quantitative techniques, creating a more comprehensive and sophisticated analysis framework. For example, machine learning algorithms, such as neural networks or support vector machines, could be trained on features extracted from the Goertzel algorithm to predict future price movements more accurately.
Furthermore, the Goertzel algorithm can be integrated with other technical analysis tools, such as moving averages or oscillators, to enhance their effectiveness. By applying these tools to the identified cycles, traders can generate more robust and reliable trading signals.
The Goertzel algorithm offers invaluable benefits to quantitative finance practitioners by uncovering hidden market cycles, aiding in the development of data-driven trading strategies, and improving risk management. By leveraging the insights provided by the Goertzel algorithm and integrating it with other quantitative techniques, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and devise more effective trading strategies.
█ Indicator Inputs
src: This is the source data for the analysis, typically the closing price of the financial instrument.
detrendornot: This input determines the method used for detrending the source data. Detrending is the process of removing the underlying trend from the data to focus on the cyclical components.
The available options are:
hpsmthdt: Detrend using Hodrick-Prescott filter centered moving average.
zlagsmthdt: Detrend using zero-lag moving average centered moving average.
logZlagRegression: Detrend using logarithmic zero-lag linear regression.
hpsmth: Detrend using Hodrick-Prescott filter.
zlagsmth: Detrend using zero-lag moving average.
DT_HPper1 and DT_HPper2: These inputs define the period range for the Hodrick-Prescott filter centered moving average when detrendornot is set to hpsmthdt.
DT_ZLper1 and DT_ZLper2: These inputs define the period range for the zero-lag moving average centered moving average when detrendornot is set to zlagsmthdt.
DT_RegZLsmoothPer: This input defines the period for the zero-lag moving average used in logarithmic zero-lag linear regression when detrendornot is set to logZlagRegression.
HPsmoothPer: This input defines the period for the Hodrick-Prescott filter when detrendornot is set to hpsmth.
ZLMAsmoothPer: This input defines the period for the zero-lag moving average when detrendornot is set to zlagsmth.
MaxPer: This input sets the maximum period for the Goertzel algorithm to search for cycles.
squaredAmp: This boolean input determines whether the amplitude should be squared in the Goertzel algorithm.
useAddition: This boolean input determines whether the Goertzel algorithm should use addition for combining the cycles.
useCosine: This boolean input determines whether the Goertzel algorithm should use cosine waves instead of sine waves.
UseCycleStrength: This boolean input determines whether the Goertzel algorithm should compute the cycle strength, which is a normalized measure of the cycle's amplitude.
WindowSizePast and WindowSizeFuture: These inputs define the window size for past and future projections of the composite wave.
FilterBartels: This boolean input determines whether Bartel's test should be applied to filter out non-significant cycles.
BartNoCycles: This input sets the number of cycles to be used in Bartel's test.
BartSmoothPer: This input sets the period for the moving average used in Bartel's test.
BartSigLimit: This input sets the significance limit for Bartel's test, below which cycles are considered insignificant.
SortBartels: This boolean input determines whether the cycles should be sorted by their Bartel's test results.
UseCycleList: This boolean input determines whether a user-defined list of cycles should be used for constructing the composite wave. If set to false, the top N cycles will be used.
Cycle1, Cycle2, Cycle3, Cycle4, and Cycle5: These inputs define the user-defined list of cycles when 'UseCycleList' is set to true. If using a user-defined list, each of these inputs represents the period of a specific cycle to include in the composite wave.
StartAtCycle: This input determines the starting index for selecting the top N cycles when UseCycleList is set to false. This allows you to skip a certain number of cycles from the top before selecting the desired number of cycles.
UseTopCycles: This input sets the number of top cycles to use for constructing the composite wave when UseCycleList is set to false. The cycles are ranked based on their amplitudes or cycle strengths, depending on the UseCycleStrength input.
SubtractNoise: This boolean input determines whether to subtract the noise (remaining cycles) from the composite wave. If set to true, the composite wave will only include the top N cycles specified by UseTopCycles.
█ Exploring Auxiliary Functions
The following functions demonstrate advanced techniques for analyzing financial markets, including zero-lag moving averages, Bartels probability, detrending, and Hodrick-Prescott filtering. This section examines each function in detail, explaining their purpose, methodology, and applications in finance. We will examine how each function contributes to the overall performance and effectiveness of the indicator and how they work together to create a powerful analytical tool.
Zero-Lag Moving Average:
The zero-lag moving average function is designed to minimize the lag typically associated with moving averages. This is achieved through a two-step weighted linear regression process that emphasizes more recent data points. The function calculates a linearly weighted moving average (LWMA) on the input data and then applies another LWMA on the result. By doing this, the function creates a moving average that closely follows the price action, reducing the lag and improving the responsiveness of the indicator.
The zero-lag moving average function is used in the indicator to provide a responsive, low-lag smoothing of the input data. This function helps reduce the noise and fluctuations in the data, making it easier to identify and analyze underlying trends and patterns. By minimizing the lag associated with traditional moving averages, this function allows the indicator to react more quickly to changes in market conditions, providing timely signals and improving the overall effectiveness of the indicator.
Bartels Probability:
The Bartels probability function calculates the probability of a given cycle being significant in a time series. It uses a mathematical test called the Bartels test to assess the significance of cycles detected in the data. The function calculates coefficients for each detected cycle and computes an average amplitude and an expected amplitude. By comparing these values, the Bartels probability is derived, indicating the likelihood of a cycle's significance. This information can help in identifying and analyzing dominant cycles in financial markets.
The Bartels probability function is incorporated into the indicator to assess the significance of detected cycles in the input data. By calculating the Bartels probability for each cycle, the indicator can prioritize the most significant cycles and focus on the market dynamics that are most relevant to the current trading environment. This function enhances the indicator's ability to identify dominant market cycles, improving its predictive power and aiding in the development of effective trading strategies.
Detrend Logarithmic Zero-Lag Regression:
The detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function is used for detrending data while minimizing lag. It combines a zero-lag moving average with a linear regression detrending method. The function first calculates the zero-lag moving average of the logarithm of input data and then applies a linear regression to remove the trend. By detrending the data, the function isolates the cyclical components, making it easier to analyze and interpret the underlying market dynamics.
The detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function is used in the indicator to isolate the cyclical components of the input data. By detrending the data, the function enables the indicator to focus on the cyclical movements in the market, making it easier to analyze and interpret market dynamics. This function is essential for identifying cyclical patterns and understanding the interactions between different market cycles, which can inform trading decisions and enhance overall market understanding.
Bartels Cycle Significance Test:
The Bartels cycle significance test is a function that combines the Bartels probability function and the detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function to assess the significance of detected cycles. The function calculates the Bartels probability for each cycle and stores the results in an array. By analyzing the probability values, traders and analysts can identify the most significant cycles in the data, which can be used to develop trading strategies and improve market understanding.
The Bartels cycle significance test function is integrated into the indicator to provide a comprehensive analysis of the significance of detected cycles. By combining the Bartels probability function and the detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function, this test evaluates the significance of each cycle and stores the results in an array. The indicator can then use this information to prioritize the most significant cycles and focus on the most relevant market dynamics. This function enhances the indicator's ability to identify and analyze dominant market cycles, providing valuable insights for trading and market analysis.
Hodrick-Prescott Filter:
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a popular technique used to separate the trend and cyclical components of a time series. The function applies a smoothing parameter to the input data and calculates a smoothed series using a two-sided filter. This smoothed series represents the trend component, which can be subtracted from the original data to obtain the cyclical component. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is commonly used in economics and finance to analyze economic data and financial market trends.
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is incorporated into the indicator to separate the trend and cyclical components of the input data. By applying the filter to the data, the indicator can isolate the trend component, which can be used to analyze long-term market trends and inform trading decisions. Additionally, the cyclical component can be used to identify shorter-term market dynamics and provide insights into potential trading opportunities. The inclusion of the Hodrick-Prescott filter adds another layer of analysis to the indicator, making it more versatile and comprehensive.
Detrending Options: Detrend Centered Moving Average:
The detrend centered moving average function provides different detrending methods, including the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the zero-lag moving average, based on the selected detrending method. The function calculates two sets of smoothed values using the chosen method and subtracts one set from the other to obtain a detrended series. By offering multiple detrending options, this function allows traders and analysts to select the most appropriate method for their specific needs and preferences.
The detrend centered moving average function is integrated into the indicator to provide users with multiple detrending options, including the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the zero-lag moving average. By offering multiple detrending methods, the indicator allows users to customize the analysis to their specific needs and preferences, enhancing the indicator's overall utility and adaptability. This function ensures that the indicator can cater to a wide range of trading styles and objectives, making it a valuable tool for a diverse group of market participants.
The auxiliary functions functions discussed in this section demonstrate the power and versatility of mathematical techniques in analyzing financial markets. By understanding and implementing these functions, traders and analysts can gain valuable insights into market dynamics, improve their trading strategies, and make more informed decisions. The combination of zero-lag moving averages, Bartels probability, detrending methods, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter provides a comprehensive toolkit for analyzing and interpreting financial data. The integration of advanced functions in a financial indicator creates a powerful and versatile analytical tool that can provide valuable insights into financial markets. By combining the zero-lag moving average,
█ In-Depth Analysis of the Goertzel Browser Code
The Goertzel Browser code is an implementation of the Goertzel Algorithm, an efficient technique to perform spectral analysis on a signal. The code is designed to detect and analyze dominant cycles within a given financial market data set. This section will provide an extremely detailed explanation of the code, its structure, functions, and intended purpose.
Function signature and input parameters:
The Goertzel Browser function accepts numerous input parameters for customization, including source data (src), the current bar (forBar), sample size (samplesize), period (per), squared amplitude flag (squaredAmp), addition flag (useAddition), cosine flag (useCosine), cycle strength flag (UseCycleStrength), past and future window sizes (WindowSizePast, WindowSizeFuture), Bartels filter flag (FilterBartels), Bartels-related parameters (BartNoCycles, BartSmoothPer, BartSigLimit), sorting flag (SortBartels), and output buffers (goeWorkPast, goeWorkFuture, cyclebuffer, amplitudebuffer, phasebuffer, cycleBartelsBuffer).
Initializing variables and arrays:
The code initializes several float arrays (goeWork1, goeWork2, goeWork3, goeWork4) with the same length as twice the period (2 * per). These arrays store intermediate results during the execution of the algorithm.
Preprocessing input data:
The input data (src) undergoes preprocessing to remove linear trends. This step enhances the algorithm's ability to focus on cyclical components in the data. The linear trend is calculated by finding the slope between the first and last values of the input data within the sample.
Iterative calculation of Goertzel coefficients:
The core of the Goertzel Browser algorithm lies in the iterative calculation of Goertzel coefficients for each frequency bin. These coefficients represent the spectral content of the input data at different frequencies. The code iterates through the range of frequencies, calculating the Goertzel coefficients using a nested loop structure.
Cycle strength computation:
The code calculates the cycle strength based on the Goertzel coefficients. This is an optional step, controlled by the UseCycleStrength flag. The cycle strength provides information on the relative influence of each cycle on the data per bar, considering both amplitude and cycle length. The algorithm computes the cycle strength either by squaring the amplitude (controlled by squaredAmp flag) or using the actual amplitude values.
Phase calculation:
The Goertzel Browser code computes the phase of each cycle, which represents the position of the cycle within the input data. The phase is calculated using the arctangent function (math.atan) based on the ratio of the imaginary and real components of the Goertzel coefficients.
Peak detection and cycle extraction:
The algorithm performs peak detection on the computed amplitudes or cycle strengths to identify dominant cycles. It stores the detected cycles in the cyclebuffer array, along with their corresponding amplitudes and phases in the amplitudebuffer and phasebuffer arrays, respectively.
Sorting cycles by amplitude or cycle strength:
The code sorts the detected cycles based on their amplitude or cycle strength in descending order. This allows the algorithm to prioritize cycles with the most significant impact on the input data.
Bartels cycle significance test:
If the FilterBartels flag is set, the code performs a Bartels cycle significance test on the detected cycles. This test determines the statistical significance of each cycle and filters out the insignificant cycles. The significant cycles are stored in the cycleBartelsBuffer array. If the SortBartels flag is set, the code sorts the significant cycles based on their Bartels significance values.
Waveform calculation:
The Goertzel Browser code calculates the waveform of the significant cycles for both past and future time windows. The past and future windows are defined by the WindowSizePast and WindowSizeFuture parameters, respectively. The algorithm uses either cosine or sine functions (controlled by the useCosine flag) to calculate the waveforms for each cycle. The useAddition flag determines whether the waveforms should be added or subtracted.
Storing waveforms in matrices:
The calculated waveforms for each cycle are stored in two matrices - goeWorkPast and goeWorkFuture. These matrices hold the waveforms for the past and future time windows, respectively. Each row in the matrices represents a time window position, and each column corresponds to a cycle.
Returning the number of cycles:
The Goertzel Browser function returns the total number of detected cycles (number_of_cycles) after processing the input data. This information can be used to further analyze the results or to visualize the detected cycles.
The Goertzel Browser code is a comprehensive implementation of the Goertzel Algorithm, specifically designed for detecting and analyzing dominant cycles within financial market data. The code offers a high level of customization, allowing users to fine-tune the algorithm based on their specific needs. The Goertzel Browser's combination of preprocessing, iterative calculations, cycle extraction, sorting, significance testing, and waveform calculation makes it a powerful tool for understanding cyclical components in financial data.
█ Generating and Visualizing Composite Waveform
The indicator calculates and visualizes the composite waveform for both past and future time windows based on the detected cycles. Here's a detailed explanation of this process:
Updating WindowSizePast and WindowSizeFuture:
The WindowSizePast and WindowSizeFuture are updated to ensure they are at least twice the MaxPer (maximum period).
Initializing matrices and arrays:
Two matrices, goeWorkPast and goeWorkFuture, are initialized to store the Goertzel results for past and future time windows. Multiple arrays are also initialized to store cycle, amplitude, phase, and Bartels information.
Preparing the source data (srcVal) array:
The source data is copied into an array, srcVal, and detrended using one of the selected methods (hpsmthdt, zlagsmthdt, logZlagRegression, hpsmth, or zlagsmth).
Goertzel function call:
The Goertzel function is called to analyze the detrended source data and extract cycle information. The output, number_of_cycles, contains the number of detected cycles.
Initializing arrays for past and future waveforms:
Three arrays, epgoertzel, goertzel, and goertzelFuture, are initialized to store the endpoint Goertzel, non-endpoint Goertzel, and future Goertzel projections, respectively.
Calculating composite waveform for past bars (goertzel array):
The past composite waveform is calculated by summing the selected cycles (either from the user-defined cycle list or the top cycles) and optionally subtracting the noise component.
Calculating composite waveform for future bars (goertzelFuture array):
The future composite waveform is calculated in a similar way as the past composite waveform.
Drawing past composite waveform (pvlines):
The past composite waveform is drawn on the chart using solid lines. The color of the lines is determined by the direction of the waveform (green for upward, red for downward).
Drawing future composite waveform (fvlines):
The future composite waveform is drawn on the chart using dotted lines. The color of the lines is determined by the direction of the waveform (fuchsia for upward, yellow for downward).
Displaying cycle information in a table (table3):
A table is created to display the cycle information, including the rank, period, Bartel value, amplitude (or cycle strength), and phase of each detected cycle.
Filling the table with cycle information:
The indicator iterates through the detected cycles and retrieves the relevant information (period, amplitude, phase, and Bartel value) from the corresponding arrays. It then fills the table with this information, displaying the values up to six decimal places.
To summarize, this indicator generates a composite waveform based on the detected cycles in the financial data. It calculates the composite waveforms for both past and future time windows and visualizes them on the chart using colored lines. Additionally, it displays detailed cycle information in a table, including the rank, period, Bartel value, amplitude (or cycle strength), and phase of each detected cycle.
█ Enhancing the Goertzel Algorithm-Based Script for Financial Modeling and Trading
The Goertzel algorithm-based script for detecting dominant cycles in financial data is a powerful tool for financial modeling and trading. It provides valuable insights into the past behavior of these cycles and potential future impact. However, as with any algorithm, there is always room for improvement. This section discusses potential enhancements to the existing script to make it even more robust and versatile for financial modeling, general trading, advanced trading, and high-frequency finance trading.
Enhancements for Financial Modeling
Data preprocessing: One way to improve the script's performance for financial modeling is to introduce more advanced data preprocessing techniques. This could include removing outliers, handling missing data, and normalizing the data to ensure consistent and accurate results.
Additional detrending and smoothing methods: Incorporating more sophisticated detrending and smoothing techniques, such as wavelet transform or empirical mode decomposition, can help improve the script's ability to accurately identify cycles and trends in the data.
Machine learning integration: Integrating machine learning techniques, such as artificial neural networks or support vector machines, can help enhance the script's predictive capabilities, leading to more accurate financial models.
Enhancements for General and Advanced Trading
Customizable indicator integration: Allowing users to integrate their own technical indicators can help improve the script's effectiveness for both general and advanced trading. By enabling the combination of the dominant cycle information with other technical analysis tools, traders can develop more comprehensive trading strategies.
Risk management and position sizing: Incorporating risk management and position sizing functionality into the script can help traders better manage their trades and control potential losses. This can be achieved by calculating the optimal position size based on the user's risk tolerance and account size.
Multi-timeframe analysis: Enhancing the script to perform multi-timeframe analysis can provide traders with a more holistic view of market trends and cycles. By identifying dominant cycles on different timeframes, traders can gain insights into the potential confluence of cycles and make better-informed trading decisions.
Enhancements for High-Frequency Finance Trading
Algorithm optimization: To ensure the script's suitability for high-frequency finance trading, optimizing the algorithm for faster execution is crucial. This can be achieved by employing efficient data structures and refining the calculation methods to minimize computational complexity.
Real-time data streaming: Integrating real-time data streaming capabilities into the script can help high-frequency traders react to market changes more quickly. By continuously updating the cycle information based on real-time market data, traders can adapt their strategies accordingly and capitalize on short-term market fluctuations.
Order execution and trade management: To fully leverage the script's capabilities for high-frequency trading, implementing functionality for automated order execution and trade management is essential. This can include features such as stop-loss and take-profit orders, trailing stops, and automated trade exit strategies.
While the existing Goertzel algorithm-based script is a valuable tool for detecting dominant cycles in financial data, there are several potential enhancements that can make it even more powerful for financial modeling, general trading, advanced trading, and high-frequency finance trading. By incorporating these improvements, the script can become a more versatile and effective tool for traders and financial analysts alike.
█ Understanding the Limitations of the Goertzel Algorithm
While the Goertzel algorithm-based script for detecting dominant cycles in financial data provides valuable insights, it is important to be aware of its limitations and drawbacks. Some of the key drawbacks of this indicator are:
Lagging nature:
As with many other technical indicators, the Goertzel algorithm-based script can suffer from lagging effects, meaning that it may not immediately react to real-time market changes. This lag can lead to late entries and exits, potentially resulting in reduced profitability or increased losses.
Parameter sensitivity:
The performance of the script can be sensitive to the chosen parameters, such as the detrending methods, smoothing techniques, and cycle detection settings. Improper parameter selection may lead to inaccurate cycle detection or increased false signals, which can negatively impact trading performance.
Complexity:
The Goertzel algorithm itself is relatively complex, making it difficult for novice traders or those unfamiliar with the concept of cycle analysis to fully understand and effectively utilize the script. This complexity can also make it challenging to optimize the script for specific trading styles or market conditions.
Overfitting risk:
As with any data-driven approach, there is a risk of overfitting when using the Goertzel algorithm-based script. Overfitting occurs when a model becomes too specific to the historical data it was trained on, leading to poor performance on new, unseen data. This can result in misleading signals and reduced trading performance.
No guarantee of future performance: While the script can provide insights into past cycles and potential future trends, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Market conditions can change, and relying solely on the script's predictions without considering other factors may lead to poor trading decisions.
Limited applicability: The Goertzel algorithm-based script may not be suitable for all markets, trading styles, or timeframes. Its effectiveness in detecting cycles may be limited in certain market conditions, such as during periods of extreme volatility or low liquidity.
While the Goertzel algorithm-based script offers valuable insights into dominant cycles in financial data, it is essential to consider its drawbacks and limitations when incorporating it into a trading strategy. Traders should always use the script in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools, as well as proper risk management, to make well-informed trading decisions.
█ Interpreting Results
The Goertzel Browser indicator can be interpreted by analyzing the plotted lines and the table presented alongside them. The indicator plots two lines: past and future composite waves. The past composite wave represents the composite wave of the past price data, and the future composite wave represents the projected composite wave for the next period.
The past composite wave line displays a solid line, with green indicating a bullish trend and red indicating a bearish trend. On the other hand, the future composite wave line is a dotted line with fuchsia indicating a bullish trend and yellow indicating a bearish trend.
The table presented alongside the indicator shows the top cycles with their corresponding rank, period, Bartels, amplitude or cycle strength, and phase. The amplitude is a measure of the strength of the cycle, while the phase is the position of the cycle within the data series.
Interpreting the Goertzel Browser indicator involves identifying the trend of the past and future composite wave lines and matching them with the corresponding bullish or bearish color. Additionally, traders can identify the top cycles with the highest amplitude or cycle strength and utilize them in conjunction with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis for trading decisions.
This indicator is considered a repainting indicator because the value of the indicator is calculated based on the past price data. As new price data becomes available, the indicator's value is recalculated, potentially causing the indicator's past values to change. This can create a false impression of the indicator's performance, as it may appear to have provided a profitable trading signal in the past when, in fact, that signal did not exist at the time.
The Goertzel indicator is also non-endpointed, meaning that it is not calculated up to the current bar or candle. Instead, it uses a fixed amount of historical data to calculate its values, which can make it difficult to use for real-time trading decisions. For example, if the indicator uses 100 bars of historical data to make its calculations, it cannot provide a signal until the current bar has closed and become part of the historical data. This can result in missed trading opportunities or delayed signals.
█ Conclusion
The Goertzel Browser indicator is a powerful tool for identifying and analyzing cyclical patterns in financial markets. Its ability to detect multiple cycles of varying frequencies and strengths make it a valuable addition to any trader's technical analysis toolkit. However, it is important to keep in mind that the Goertzel Browser indicator should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and fundamental analysis to achieve the best results. With continued refinement and development, the Goertzel Browser indicator has the potential to become a highly effective tool for financial modeling, general trading, advanced trading, and high-frequency finance trading. Its accuracy and versatility make it a promising candidate for further research and development.
█ Footnotes
What is the Bartels Test for Cycle Significance?
The Bartels Cycle Significance Test is a statistical method that determines whether the peaks and troughs of a time series are statistically significant. The test is named after its inventor, George Bartels, who developed it in the mid-20th century.
The Bartels test is designed to analyze the cyclical components of a time series, which can help traders and analysts identify trends and cycles in financial markets. The test calculates a Bartels statistic, which measures the degree of non-randomness or autocorrelation in the time series.
The Bartels statistic is calculated by first splitting the time series into two halves and calculating the range of the peaks and troughs in each half. The test then compares these ranges using a t-test, which measures the significance of the difference between the two ranges.
If the Bartels statistic is greater than a critical value, it indicates that the peaks and troughs in the time series are non-random and that there is a significant cyclical component to the data. Conversely, if the Bartels statistic is less than the critical value, it suggests that the peaks and troughs are random and that there is no significant cyclical component.
The Bartels Cycle Significance Test is particularly useful in financial analysis because it can help traders and analysts identify significant cycles in asset prices, which can in turn inform investment decisions. However, it is important to note that the test is not perfect and can produce false signals in certain situations, particularly in noisy or volatile markets. Therefore, it is always recommended to use the test in conjunction with other technical and fundamental indicators to confirm trends and cycles.
Deep-dive into the Hodrick-Prescott Fitler
The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a statistical tool used in economics and finance to separate a time series into two components: a trend component and a cyclical component. It is a powerful tool for identifying long-term trends in economic and financial data and is widely used by economists, central banks, and financial institutions around the world.
The HP filter was first introduced in the 1990s by economists Robert Hodrick and Edward Prescott. It is a simple, two-parameter filter that separates a time series into a trend component and a cyclical component. The trend component represents the long-term behavior of the data, while the cyclical component captures the shorter-term fluctuations around the trend.
The HP filter works by minimizing the following objective function:
Minimize: (Sum of Squared Deviations) + λ (Sum of Squared Second Differences)
Where:
The first term represents the deviation of the data from the trend.
The second term represents the smoothness of the trend.
λ is a smoothing parameter that determines the degree of smoothness of the trend.
The smoothing parameter λ is typically set to a value between 100 and 1600, depending on the frequency of the data. Higher values of λ lead to a smoother trend, while lower values lead to a more volatile trend.
The HP filter has several advantages over other smoothing techniques. It is a non-parametric method, meaning that it does not make any assumptions about the underlying distribution of the data. It also allows for easy comparison of trends across different time series and can be used with data of any frequency.
However, the HP filter also has some limitations. It assumes that the trend is a smooth function, which may not be the case in some situations. It can also be sensitive to changes in the smoothing parameter λ, which may result in different trends for the same data. Additionally, the filter may produce unrealistic trends for very short time series.
Despite these limitations, the HP filter remains a valuable tool for analyzing economic and financial data. It is widely used by central banks and financial institutions to monitor long-term trends in the economy, and it can be used to identify turning points in the business cycle. The filter can also be used to analyze asset prices, exchange rates, and other financial variables.
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a powerful tool for analyzing economic and financial data. It separates a time series into a trend component and a cyclical component, allowing for easy identification of long-term trends and turning points in the business cycle. While it has some limitations, it remains a valuable tool for economists, central banks, and financial institutions around the world.
ICT Panther (By Obicrypto) V1 ICT Panther Indicator: Full and Detailed Description
The ICT Panther Indicator, created by Obicrypto, is an advanced technical analysis tool designed specifically for traders looking to identify key price action events based on institutional trading techniques, particularly in the context of the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology. This indicator helps traders spot market structure breaks, order blocks, and potential trade opportunities driven by institutional behaviors in the market. Here's a detailed breakdown of its features and how it works:
What Does the ICT Panther Indicator Do?
1. Market Structure Breaks (MSB) Identification:
The ICT Panther identifies critical points where the market changes direction, commonly referred to as a break of structure (BoS). When the price breaks above or below certain key levels (based on highs and lows or opens and closes), it signals a potential shift in market sentiment. These break-of-structure points are essential for traders to determine whether the market is likely to continue its trend or reverse.
2. Order Blocks Visualization:
The indicator plots demand (bullish) and supply (bearish) boxes, which represent areas where institutional traders might place significant buy or sell orders. These zones, known as order blocks, are areas where the price tends to pause or reverse, giving traders key insights into potential entry and exit points. The indicator shows these areas graphically as colored boxes on the chart, which can be used to plan trades based on market structure and price action.
3. Pivot Point Detection:
The ICT Panther identifies important pivot points by tracking higher highs and lower lows. These pivot points are critical in determining the strength of a trend and can help traders confirm the direction of the market. The indicator uses a unique algorithm to detect two levels of pivot points:
- First-Order Pivots: Major pivot points where the price makes notable highs and lows.
- Second-Order Pivots: Smaller pivot points, useful for detecting microtrends within the larger market structure.
4. Bullish and Bearish Break of Structure Lines:
When a significant market structure break (BoS) occurs, the indicator will automatically draw red lines (for bearish break of structure) and green lines (for bullish break of structure) at key price levels. These lines help traders quickly see where institutional moves have occurred in the past and where potential future price moves could originate from.
5. Tested and Filled Boxes:
The ICT Panther also has a built-in mechanism to dim previously tested order blocks. When the price tests an order block (returns to a previous demand or supply zone), the box's color dims to indicate that the area has already been tested, reducing its significance. If the price fully fills an order block, the box stops plotting, providing a clear and clutter-free chart.
Key Features
1. Market Structure Break (MSB) Trigger:
- The indicator allows users to select between highs/lows or opens/closes as the trigger for market structure breaks. This flexibility lets traders adjust the indicator to suit their personal trading style or the behavior of specific assets.
2. Order Block Detection and Visualization:
- The tool automatically plots bullish and bearish demand and supply boxes, representing institutional order blocks on the chart. These boxes provide visual cues for areas of potential price action, where institutional traders might be active.
3. Second-Order Pivot Highlighting:
- The ICT Panther offers an option to plot second-order pivots, highlighting smaller pivot points within the larger market structure. These pivots can be helpful for short-term traders who need to react to smaller price movements while still keeping the larger trend in mind.
4. Box Test and Fill Delays:
- Users can configure delays for box tests and box fills, meaning the indicator will only mark a box as tested or filled after a certain number of bars. This prevents false signals and helps confirm that a zone is truly significant in the market.
5. Customization and Visual Clarity:
- The indicator is highly customizable, allowing users to turn on or off various features like:
- Displaying second-order pivots.
- Highlighting candles that broke structure.
- Plotting market structure broke lines.
- Showing or hiding tested and filled demand boxes.
- Setting custom delays for box testing and filling to suit different market conditions.
6. Tested and Filled Order Block Visualization:
- The indicator visually adjusts the tested and filled order blocks, dimming tested zones and removing filled zones to avoid clutter on the chart. This ensures that traders can focus on active trading opportunities without distractions from historical data.
How Does It Work?
1. Detecting Market Structure Breaks (BoS):
- The indicator continuously tracks the market for key price action signals. When the price breaks through previous highs or lows (or opens and closes, depending on your selection), the indicator marks this as a break of structure. This is a critical signal used by institutional traders and retail traders alike to determine potential future price movements.
2. Order Block Identification:
- Whenever a bullish break of structure occurs, the indicator plots a green demand box to show the area where institutional buyers might have placed significant orders. Similarly, for a bearish break of structure, it plots a red supply box representing areas where institutional sellers are active.
3. Pivot Analysis and Tracking:
- As the market moves, the indicator continuously updates first-order and second-order pivot points based on highs and lows. These points help traders identify whether the market is trending or consolidating. Traders can use these pivot points in combination with the order blocks to make informed trading decisions.
4. Box Testing and Filling:
- When the price retests an existing order block, the box dims to show it has been tested. If the price fully fills the box, it is no longer shown, which helps traders focus on the most relevant, untested order blocks.
Benefits for Traders
- Improved Decision-Making: With clear visuals and advanced logic based on institutional trading strategies, this indicator provides a deeper understanding of market structure and price action.
- Reduced Clutter: The indicator intelligently manages the display of order blocks and pivot points, ensuring that traders focus only on the most relevant information.
- Adaptability: Whether you are a swing trader or a day trader, the ICT Panther can be adjusted to fit your trading style, offering robust and flexible tools for tracking market structure and order blocks.
- Institutional Edge: By identifying institutional-level order blocks and market structure breaks, traders using this indicator can trade in line with the strategies of large market participants.
Who Should Use the ICT Panther Indicator?
This indicator is ideal for:
- Crypto, Forex, and Stock Traders who want to incorporate institutional trading concepts into their strategies.
- Technical Analysts looking for precise tools to measure the market structure and price action.
- ICT Traders who follow the Inner Circle Trader methodology and want an advanced tool to automate and enhance their analysis.
- Price Action Traders seeking a reliable indicator to track pivot points, order blocks, and market structure breaks.
The ICT Panther Indicator is a powerful, versatile tool that brings institutional trading techniques to the fingertips of retail traders. Whether you are looking to identify key market structure breaks, order blocks, or crucial pivot points, this indicator offers detailed visualizations and customizable options to help you make more informed trading decisions. With its ability to track the activities of institutional traders, the ICT Panther Indicator equips traders with the insights needed to stay ahead of the market and trade with confidence.
With the ICT Panther Indicator, traders can follow the movements of institutional money, making it easier to predict market direction and capitalize on high-probability trading opportunities.
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Change in State of Delivery (CISD) [LuxAlgo]The Change In State Of Delivery (CISD) indicator detects and displays Change in State Of Delivery, a concept related to market structures.
Users can choose between two different CISD detection methods. Various filtering options are also included to filter out less significant CISDs.
🔶 USAGE
A Change in State of Delivery (CISD) is a concept closely related to market structures, where price breaks a level of interest, confirming trends and their continuations from the resulting breakouts.
Unlike more traditional market structures which rely on swing points, CISDs rely on a persistent sequence of candles, using the sequence extremes as breakout levels.
CISDs are detected as follows:
Bullish: The price closes above the opening price of the first candle in a sequence of bearish candles (or its own opening price if it's the only candle).
Bearish: The price closes below the opening price of the first candle in a sequence of bullish candles (or its own opening price if it's the only candle).
If a newly detected CISD aligns with the indicator's current established trend, this confirms a trend continuation (represented with a dashed line).
On the other hand, if a newly detected CISD is in the opposite direction to the detected trend it can confirm a trend reversal (represented with a solid line).
🔹 Liquidity Sweep Detection Method
Using Liquidity Sweeps to update CISD breakout levels allows us to obtain less frequent and more relevant levels that are less sensitive to noisy price variations.
Sweeps are obtained from detected Swing Points , with a higher Swing Length allowing us to obtain longer-term swing levels and potentially more detected sweeps from a specific level over time.
Note: The 'Swing Length' setting is only applicable on the Liquidity Sweep Detection Method and will only change the Liquidity levels.
A Liquidity Sweep is valid when the price reaches an important liquidity level , after which the price closes below/above this level.
Bullish scenario: The price goes below a previous unbroken Swing Low but closes above.
Bearish scenario: The price goes above a previous unbroken Swing High but closes below.
After a Liquidity Sweep has been detected, the last level of importance acts as support/resistance . Breaking this level in the other direction changes the state of delivery .
Users must keep observing the price and significant levels, as highlighted by the white rectangle in the above example.
🔹 CISD Filtering
Users can adjust the following two settings:
Minimum CISD Duration: The minimum length of the 'CISD' line
Maximum Swing Validity: The maximum length of the 'CISD' line; potential CISD lines that aren't broken are deleted when exceeding the limit.
The chart can get cluttered when the Minimum CISD Duration is low. Users could focus on a switch in trend (first solid line CISD ), where the following dashed CISD lines can be seen as extra opportunities/confirmations.
🔶 DETAIL
🔹 Using Different Timeframes
When an important liquidity level (Previous Swing high/low, FVG, etc.) is reached on the higher timeframe, the user can move to a lower timeframe to check whether there is a CISD .
Above example:
The high of the last candle breaches a liquidity level (previous Swing High). The opening price of the last candle acts as a trigger/confirmation level.
A confirmed CISD is seen in a lower timeframe, just after this Liquidity Sweep. This could be an early opportunity.
Later, a confirmed CISD on the higher timeframe is established.
🔶 SETTINGS
Detection Method: Classic or Liquidity Sweep
Swing Length: Period used for the swing detection, with higher values returning longer-term Swing Levels.
Minimum CISD Duration: The minimum length of the CISD line
Maximum Swing Validity: The maximum length of the CISD line; potential CISD lines that aren't broken are deleted when exceeding the limit.
Fair Value Gaps Setup 01 [TradingFinder] FVG Absorption + CHoCH🔵 Introduction
🟣 Market Structures
Market structures exhibit a fractal and nested nature, which leads us to classify them into internal (minor) and external (major) categories. Definitions of market structure vary, with different methodologies such as Smart Money and ICT offering distinct interpretations.
To identify market structure, the initial step involves examining key highs and lows. An uptrend is characterized by successive highs and lows that are higher than their predecessors. Conversely, a downtrend is marked by successive lows and highs that are lower than their previous counterparts.
🟣 Market Trends and Movements
Market trends consist of two primary types of movements :
Impulsive Movements : These movements align with the main trend and are characterized by high strength and momentum.
Corrective Movements : These movements counter the main trend and are marked by lower strength and momentum.
🟣 Break of Structure (BOS)
In a downtrend, a Break of Structure (BOS) occurs when the price falls below the previous low and establishes a new low (LL). In an uptrend, a BOS, also known as a Market Structure Break (MSB), happens when the price rises above the last high.
To confirm a trend, at least one BOS is necessary, which requires the price to close at least one candle beyond the previous high or low.
🟣 Change of Character (CHOCH)
Change of Character (CHOCH) is a crucial concept in market structure analysis, indicating a shift in trend. A trend concludes with a CHOCH, also referred to as a Market Structure Shift (MSS).
For example, in a downtrend, the price continues to drop with BOS, showcasing the trend's strength. However, when the price rises and exceeds the last high, a CHOCH occurs, signaling a potential transition from a downtrend to an uptrend.
It is essential to note that a CHOCH does not immediately indicate a buy trade. Instead, it is prudent to wait for a BOS in the upward direction to confirm the uptrend. Unlike BOS, a CHOCH confirmation does not require a candle to close; merely breaking the previous high or low with the candle's wick is sufficient.
🟣 Spike | Inefficiency | Imbalance
All these terms mean fast price movement in the shortest possible time.
🟣 Fair Value Gap (FVG)
To pinpoint the "Fair Value Gap" (FVG) on a chart, a detailed candle-by-candle analysis is necessary. This process involves focusing on candles with substantial bodies and evaluating them in relation to the candles immediately before and after them.
Here are the steps :
Identify the Central Candle : Look for a candle with a large body.
Examine Adjacent Candles : The candles before and after this central candle should have long shadows, and their bodies must not overlap with the body of the central candle.
Determine the FVG Range : The distance between the shadows of the first and third candles defines the FVG range.
This method helps in accurately identifying the Fair Value Gap, which is crucial for understanding market inefficiencies and potential price movements.
🟣 Setup
This setup is based on Market Structure and FVG. After a change of character and the formation of FVG in the last lag of the price movement, we are looking for trading positions in the price pullback.
Bullish Setup :
Bearish Setup :
🔵 How to Use
After forming the setup, you can enter the trade using a pending order or after receiving confirmation. To increase the probability of success, you can adjust the pivot period market structure settings or modify the market movement coefficient in the formation leg of the FVG.
Bullish Setup :
Bearish Setup :
🔵 Setting
Pivot Period of Market Structure Detector :
This parameter allows you to configure the zigzag period based on pivots. Adjusting this helps in accurately detecting order blocks.
Show major Bullish ChoCh Lines :
You can toggle the visibility of the Demand Main Zone and "ChoCh" Origin, and customize their color as needed.
Show major Bearish ChoCh Lines :
Similar to the Demand Main Zone, you can control the visibility and color of the Supply Main Zone and "ChoCh" Origin.
FVG Detector Multiplier Factor :
This feature lets you adjust the size of the moves forming the Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) using the Average True Range (ATR). The default value is 1, suitable for identifying most setups. Adjust this value based on the specific symbol and market for optimal results.
FVG Validity Period :
This parameter defines the validity period of an FVG in terms of the number of candles. By default, an FVG remains valid for up to 15 candles, but you can adjust this period as needed.
Mitigation Level FVG :
This setting establishes the basic level of an FVG. When the price reaches this level, the FVG is considered mitigated.
Level in Low-Risk Zone :
This feature aims to reduce risk by dividing the FVG into two equal areas: "Premium" (upper area) and "Discount" (lower area). For lower risk, ensure that "Demand FVG" is in the "Discount" area and "Supply FVG" in the "Premium" area. This feature is off by default.
Show or Hide :
Given the potential abundance of setups, displaying all on the chart can be overwhelming. By default, only the last setup is shown, but you can enable the option to view all setups.
Alert Settings :
On / Off : Toggle alerts on or off.
Message Frequency : Determine how often alerts are triggered.
Options include :
"All" (alerts every time the function is called)
"Once Per Bar" (alerts only on the first call within the bar)
"Once Per Bar Close" (alerts only at the last script execution of the real-time bar upon closing)
The default setting is "Once Per Bar".
Show Alert Time by Time Zone : Set the alert time based on your preferred time zone, such as "UTC-4" for New York time. The default is "UTC".
Display More Info : Optionally show additional details like the price range of the order blocks and the date, hour, and minute in the alert message. Set this to "Off" if you prefer not to receive this information.
Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory🌌 Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory (AHFT) - Revolutionary Quantum Market Analysis
Where Theoretical Physics Meets Trading Reality
A Groundbreaking Synthesis of Differential Geometry, Quantum Field Theory, and Market Dynamics
🔬 THEORETICAL FOUNDATION - THE MATHEMATICS OF MARKET REALITY
The Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory represents an unprecedented fusion of advanced mathematical physics with practical market analysis. This isn't merely another indicator repackaging old concepts - it's a fundamentally new lens through which to view and understand market structure .
1. HOLONOMY GROUPS (Differential Geometry)
In differential geometry, holonomy measures how vectors change when parallel transported around closed loops in curved space. Applied to markets:
Mathematical Formula:
H = P exp(∮_C A_μ dx^μ)
Where:
P = Path ordering operator
A_μ = Market connection (price-volume gauge field)
C = Closed price path
Market Implementation:
The holonomy calculation measures how price "remembers" its journey through market space. When price returns to a previous level, the holonomy captures what has changed in the market's internal geometry. This reveals:
Hidden curvature in the market manifold
Topological obstructions to arbitrage
Geometric phase accumulated during price cycles
2. ANOMALY DETECTION (Quantum Field Theory)
Drawing from the Adler-Bell-Jackiw anomaly in quantum field theory:
Mathematical Formula:
∂_μ j^μ = (e²/16π²)F_μν F̃^μν
Where:
j^μ = Market current (order flow)
F_μν = Field strength tensor (volatility structure)
F̃^μν = Dual field strength
Market Application:
Anomalies represent symmetry breaking in market structure - moments when normal patterns fail and extraordinary opportunities arise. The system detects:
Spontaneous symmetry breaking (trend reversals)
Vacuum fluctuations (volatility clusters)
Non-perturbative effects (market crashes/melt-ups)
3. GAUGE THEORY (Theoretical Physics)
Markets exhibit gauge invariance - the fundamental physics remains unchanged under certain transformations:
Mathematical Formula:
A'_μ = A_μ + ∂_μΛ
This ensures our signals are gauge-invariant observables , immune to arbitrary market "coordinate changes" like gaps or reference point shifts.
4. TOPOLOGICAL DATA ANALYSIS
Using persistent homology and Morse theory:
Mathematical Formula:
β_k = dim(H_k(X))
Where β_k are the Betti numbers describing topological features that persist across scales.
🎯 REVOLUTIONARY SIGNAL CONFIGURATION
Signal Sensitivity (0.5-12.0, default 2.5)
Controls the responsiveness of holonomy field calculations to market conditions. This parameter directly affects the threshold for detecting quantum phase transitions in price action.
Optimization by Timeframe:
Scalping (1-5min): 1.5-3.0 for rapid signal generation
Day Trading (15min-1H): 2.5-5.0 for balanced sensitivity
Swing Trading (4H-1D): 5.0-8.0 for high-quality signals only
Score Amplifier (10-200, default 50)
Scales the raw holonomy field strength to produce meaningful signal values. Higher values amplify weak signals in low-volatility environments.
Signal Confirmation Toggle
When enabled, enforces additional technical filters (EMA and RSI alignment) to reduce false positives. Essential for conservative strategies.
Minimum Bars Between Signals (1-20, default 5)
Prevents overtrading by enforcing quantum decoherence time between signals. Higher values reduce whipsaws in choppy markets.
👑 ELITE EXECUTION SYSTEM
Execution Modes:
Conservative Mode:
Stricter signal criteria
Higher quality thresholds
Ideal for stable market conditions
Adaptive Mode:
Self-adjusting parameters
Balances signal frequency with quality
Recommended for most traders
Aggressive Mode:
Maximum signal sensitivity
Captures rapid market moves
Best for experienced traders in volatile conditions
Dynamic Position Sizing:
When enabled, the system scales position size based on:
Holonomy field strength
Current volatility regime
Recent performance metrics
Advanced Exit Management:
Implements trailing stops based on ATR and signal strength, with mode-specific multipliers for optimal profit capture.
🧠 ADAPTIVE INTELLIGENCE ENGINE
Self-Learning System:
The strategy analyzes recent trade outcomes and adjusts:
Risk multipliers based on win/loss ratios
Signal weights according to performance
Market regime detection for environmental adaptation
Learning Speed (0.05-0.3):
Controls adaptation rate. Higher values = faster learning but potentially unstable. Lower values = stable but slower adaptation.
Performance Window (20-100 trades):
Number of recent trades analyzed for adaptation. Longer windows provide stability, shorter windows increase responsiveness.
🎨 REVOLUTIONARY VISUAL SYSTEM
1. Holonomy Field Visualization
What it shows: Multi-layer quantum field bands representing market resonance zones
How to interpret:
Blue/Purple bands = Primary holonomy field (strongest resonance)
Band width = Field strength and volatility
Price within bands = Normal quantum state
Price breaking bands = Quantum phase transition
Trading application: Trade reversals at band extremes, breakouts on band violations with strong signals.
2. Quantum Portals
What they show: Entry signals with recursive depth patterns indicating momentum strength
How to interpret:
Upward triangles with portals = Long entry signals
Downward triangles with portals = Short entry signals
Portal depth = Signal strength and expected momentum
Color intensity = Probability of success
Trading application: Enter on portal appearance, with size proportional to portal depth.
3. Field Resonance Bands
What they show: Fibonacci-based harmonic price zones where quantum resonance occurs
How to interpret:
Dotted circles = Minor resonance levels
Solid circles = Major resonance levels
Color coding = Resonance strength
Trading application: Use as dynamic support/resistance, expect reactions at resonance zones.
4. Anomaly Detection Grid
What it shows: Fractal-based support/resistance with anomaly strength calculations
How to interpret:
Triple-layer lines = Major fractal levels with high anomaly probability
Labels show: Period (H8-H55), Price, and Anomaly strength (φ)
⚡ symbol = Extreme anomaly detected
● symbol = Strong anomaly
○ symbol = Normal conditions
Trading application: Expect major moves when price approaches high anomaly levels. Use for precise entry/exit timing.
5. Phase Space Flow
What it shows: Background heatmap revealing market topology and energy
How to interpret:
Dark background = Low market energy, range-bound
Purple glow = Building energy, trend developing
Bright intensity = High energy, strong directional move
Trading application: Trade aggressively in bright phases, reduce activity in dark phases.
📊 PROFESSIONAL DASHBOARD METRICS
Holonomy Field Strength (-100 to +100)
What it measures: The Wilson loop integral around price paths
>70: Strong positive curvature (bullish vortex)
<-70: Strong negative curvature (bearish collapse)
Near 0: Flat connection (range-bound)
Anomaly Level (0-100%)
What it measures: Quantum vacuum expectation deviation
>70%: Major anomaly (phase transition imminent)
30-70%: Moderate anomaly (elevated volatility)
<30%: Normal quantum fluctuations
Quantum State (-1, 0, +1)
What it measures: Market wave function collapse
+1: Bullish eigenstate |↑⟩
0: Superposition (uncertain)
-1: Bearish eigenstate |↓⟩
Signal Quality Ratings
LEGENDARY: All quantum fields aligned, maximum probability
EXCEPTIONAL: Strong holonomy with anomaly confirmation
STRONG: Good field strength, moderate anomaly
MODERATE: Decent signals, some uncertainty
WEAK: Minimal edge, high quantum noise
Performance Metrics
Win Rate: Rolling performance with emoji indicators
Daily P&L: Real-time profit tracking
Adaptive Risk: Current risk multiplier status
Market Regime: Bull/Bear classification
🏆 WHY THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING
Traditional technical analysis operates on 100-year-old principles - moving averages, support/resistance, and pattern recognition. These work because many traders use them, creating self-fulfilling prophecies.
AHFT transcends this limitation by analyzing markets through the lens of fundamental physics:
Markets have geometry - The holonomy calculations reveal this hidden structure
Price has memory - The geometric phase captures path-dependent effects
Anomalies are predictable - Quantum field theory identifies symmetry breaking
Everything is connected - Gauge theory unifies disparate market phenomena
This isn't just a new indicator - it's a new way of thinking about markets . Just as Einstein's relativity revolutionized physics beyond Newton's mechanics, AHFT revolutionizes technical analysis beyond traditional methods.
🔧 OPTIMAL SETTINGS FOR MNQ 10-MINUTE
For the Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 on 10-minute timeframe:
Signal Sensitivity: 2.5-3.5
Score Amplifier: 50-70
Execution Mode: Adaptive
Min Bars Between: 3-5
Theme: Quantum Nebula or Dark Matter
💭 THE JOURNEY - FROM IMPOSSIBLE THEORY TO TRADING REALITY
Creating AHFT was a mathematical odyssey that pushed the boundaries of what's possible in Pine Script. The journey began with a seemingly impossible question: Could the profound mathematical structures of theoretical physics be translated into practical trading tools?
The Theoretical Challenge:
Months were spent diving deep into differential geometry textbooks, studying the works of Chern, Simons, and Witten. The mathematics of holonomy groups and gauge theory had never been applied to financial markets. Translating abstract mathematical concepts like parallel transport and fiber bundles into discrete price calculations required novel approaches and countless failed attempts.
The Computational Nightmare:
Pine Script wasn't designed for quantum field theory calculations. Implementing the Wilson loop integral, managing complex array structures for anomaly detection, and maintaining computational efficiency while calculating geometric phases pushed the language to its limits. There were moments when the entire project seemed impossible - the script would timeout, produce nonsensical results, or simply refuse to compile.
The Breakthrough Moments:
After countless sleepless nights and thousands of lines of code, breakthrough came through elegant simplifications. The realization that market anomalies follow patterns similar to quantum vacuum fluctuations led to the revolutionary anomaly detection system. The discovery that price paths exhibit holonomic memory unlocked the geometric phase calculations.
The Visual Revolution:
Creating visualizations that could represent 4-dimensional quantum fields on a 2D chart required innovative approaches. The multi-layer holonomy field, recursive quantum portals, and phase space flow representations went through dozens of iterations before achieving the perfect balance of beauty and functionality.
The Balancing Act:
Perhaps the greatest challenge was maintaining mathematical rigor while ensuring practical trading utility. Every formula had to be both theoretically sound and computationally efficient. Every visual had to be both aesthetically pleasing and information-rich.
The result is more than a strategy - it's a synthesis of pure mathematics and market reality that reveals the hidden order within apparent chaos.
📚 INTEGRATED DOCUMENTATION
Once applied to your chart, AHFT includes comprehensive tooltips on every input parameter. The source code contains detailed explanations of the mathematical theory, practical applications, and optimization guidelines. This published description provides the overview - the indicator itself is a complete educational resource.
⚠️ RISK DISCLAIMER
While AHFT employs advanced mathematical models derived from theoretical physics, markets remain inherently unpredictable. No mathematical model, regardless of sophistication, can guarantee future results. This strategy uses realistic commission ($0.62 per contract) and slippage (1 tick) in all calculations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use appropriate risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
🌟 CONCLUSION
The Anomalous Holonomy Field Theory represents a quantum leap in technical analysis - literally. By applying the profound insights of differential geometry, quantum field theory, and gauge theory to market analysis, AHFT reveals structure and opportunities invisible to traditional methods.
From the holonomy calculations that capture market memory to the anomaly detection that identifies phase transitions, from the adaptive intelligence that learns and evolves to the stunning visualizations that make the invisible visible, every component works in mathematical harmony.
This is more than a trading strategy. It's a new lens through which to view market reality.
Trade with the precision of physics. Trade with the power of mathematics. Trade with AHFT.
I hope this serves as a good replacement for Quantum Edge Pro - Adaptive AI until I'm able to fix it.
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Wyckoff Event Detection [Alpha Extract]Wyckoff Event Detection
A powerful and intelligent indicator designed to detect key Wyckoff events in real time, helping traders analyze market structure and anticipate potential trend shifts. Using volume and price action, this script automatically identifies distribution and accumulation phases, providing traders with valuable insights into market behavior.
🔶 Phase-Based Detection
Utilizes a phase detection algorithm that evaluates price and volume conditions to identify accumulation (bullish) and distribution (bearish) events. This method ensures the script effectively captures major market turning points and avoids noise.
🔶 Multi-Factor Event Recognition
Incorporates multiple event conditions, including upthrusts, selling climaxes, and springs, to detect high-probability entry and exit points. Each event is filtered through customizable sensitivity settings, ensuring precise detection aligned with different trading styles.
🔶 Customizable Parameters
Fine-tune event detection with adjustable thresholds for volume, price movement, trend strength, and event spacing. These inputs allow traders to personalize the script to match their strategy and risk tolerance.
// === USER INPUTS ===
i_volLen = input.int(20, "Volume MA Length", minval=1)
i_priceLookback = input.int(20, "Price Pattern Lookback", minval=5)
i_lineLength = input.int(15, "Line Length", minval=5)
i_labelSpacing = input.int(5, "Minimum Label Spacing (bars)", minval=1, maxval=20)
❓How It Works
🔶 Event Identification
The script scans for key Wyckoff events by analyzing volume spikes, price deviations, and trend shifts within a user-defined lookback period. It categorizes events into bullish (accumulation) or bearish (distribution) structures and plots them directly on the chart.
// === EVENT DETECTION ===
volMA = ta.sma(volume, i_volLen)
highestHigh = ta.highest(high, i_priceLookback)
lowestLow = ta.lowest(low, i_priceLookback)
🔶 Automatic Filtering & Cleanup
Unconfirmed or weak signals are filtered out using customizable strength multipliers and volume thresholds. Events that do not meet the minimum conditions are discarded to keep the chart clean and informative.
🔶 Phase Strength Analysis
The script continuously tracks bullish and bearish event counts to determine whether the market is currently in an accumulation, distribution, or neutral phase. This allows traders to align their strategies accordingly.
🔶 Visual Alerts & Labels
Detects and labels key Wyckoff events directly on the chart, providing immediate insights into market conditions:
- PSY (Preliminary Supply) and UT (Upthrust) for distribution phases.
- PS (Preliminary Support) and SC (Selling Climax) for accumulation phases.
- Labels adjust dynamically to avoid chart clutter and improve readability.
🔶 Entry & Exit Optimization
By highlighting supply and demand imbalances, the script assists traders in identifying optimal entry and exit points. Wyckoff concepts such as springs and upthrusts provide clear trade signals based on market structure.
🔶 Trend Confirmation & Risk Management
Observing how price reacts to detected events helps confirm trend direction and potential reversals. Traders can place stop-loss and take-profit levels based on Wyckoff phase analysis, ensuring strategic trade execution.
🔶 Table-Based Market Analysis (Table)
A built-in table summarizes:
- Market Phase: Accumulation, Distribution, or Neutral.
- Strength of Phase: Weak, Moderate, or Strong.
- Price Positioning: Whether price is near support, resistance, or in a trading range.
- Supply/Demand State: Identifies whether the market is supply or demand dominant.
🔶 Why Choose Wyckoff Market Phases - Alpha Extract?
This indicator offers a systematic approach to understanding market mechanics through the lens of Wyckoff's time-tested principles. By providing clear and actionable insights into market phases, it empowers traders to make informed decisions, enhancing both confidence and performance in various trading environments.
Poisson Projection of Price Levels### **Poisson Projection of Price Levels**
**Overview:**
The *Poisson Projection of Price Levels* is a cutting-edge technical indicator designed to identify and visualize potential support and resistance levels based on historical price interactions. By leveraging the Poisson distribution, this tool dynamically adjusts the significance of each price level's past "touches" to project future interactions with varying degrees of probability. This probabilistic approach offers traders a nuanced view of where price levels may hold or react in upcoming bars, enhancing both analysis and trading strategies.
---
**🔍 **Math & Methodology**
1. **Strata Levels:**
- **Definition:** Strata are horizontal lines spaced evenly around the current closing price.
- **Calculation:**
\
where \(i\) ranges from 0 to \(\text{Strata Count} - 1\).
2. **Forecast Iterations:**
- **Structure:** The indicator projects five forecast iterations into the future, each spaced by a Fibonacci sequence of bars: 2, 3, 5, 8, and 13 bars ahead. This spacing is inspired by the Fibonacci sequence, which is prevalent in financial market analysis for identifying key levels.
- **Purpose:** Each iteration represents a distinct forecast point where the price may interact with the strata, allowing for a multi-step projection of potential price levels.
3. **Touch Counting:**
- **Definition:** A "touch" occurs when the closing price of a bar is within half the increment of a stratum level.
- **Process:** For each stratum and each forecast iteration, the indicator counts the number of touches within a specified lookback window (e.g., 80 bars), offset by the forecasted position. This ensures that each iteration's touch count is independent and contextually relevant to its forecast horizon.
- **Adjustment:** Each forecast iteration analyzes a unique segment of the lookback window, offset by its forecasted position to ensure independent probability calculations.
4. **Poisson Probability Calculation:**
- **Formula:**
\
\
- **Interpretation:** \(p(k=1)\) represents the probability of exactly one touch occurring within the lookback window for each stratum and iteration.
- **Application:** This probability is used to determine the transparency of each stratum line, where higher probabilities result in more opaque (less transparent) lines, indicating stronger historical significance.
5. **Transparency Mapping:**
- **Calculation:**
\
- **Purpose:** Maps the Poisson probability to a visual transparency level, enhancing the readability of significant strata levels.
- **Outcome:** Strata with higher probabilities (more historical touches) appear more opaque, while those with lower probabilities appear fainter.
---
**📊 **Comparability to Standard Techniques**
1. **Support and Resistance Levels:**
- **Traditional Approach:** Traders identify support and resistance based on historical price reversals, pivot points, or psychological price levels.
- **Poisson Projection:** Automates and quantifies this process by statistically analyzing the frequency of price interactions with specific levels, providing a probabilistic measure of significance.
2. **Statistical Modeling:**
- **Standard Models:** Techniques like Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, or Fibonacci Retracements offer dynamic and rule-based levels but lack direct probabilistic interpretation.
- **Poisson Projection:** Introduces a discrete event probability framework, offering a unique blend of statistical rigor and visual clarity that complements traditional indicators.
3. **Event-Based Analysis:**
- **Financial Industry Practices:** Event studies and high-frequency trading models often use Poisson processes to model order arrivals or price jumps.
- **Indicator Application:** While not identical, the use of Poisson probabilities in this indicator draws inspiration from event-based modeling, applying it to the context of price level interactions.
---
**💡 **Strengths & Advantages**
1. **Innovative Visualization:**
- Combines statistical probability with traditional support/resistance visualization, offering a fresh perspective on price level significance.
2. **Dynamic Adaptability:**
- Parameters like strata increment, lookback window, and probability threshold are user-defined, allowing customization across different markets and timeframes.
3. **Independent Probability Calculations:**
- Each forecast iteration calculates its own Poisson probability, ensuring that projections are contextually relevant and independent of other iterations.
4. **Clear Visual Cues:**
- Transparency-based coloring intuitively highlights significant price levels, making it easier for traders to identify key areas of interest at a glance.
---
**⚠️ **Limitations & Considerations**
1. **Poisson Assumptions:**
- Assumes that touches occur independently and at a constant average rate (\(\lambda\)), which may not always align with market realities characterized by trends and volatility clustering.
2. **Computational Intensity:**
- Managing multiple iterations and strata can be resource-intensive, potentially affecting performance on lower-powered devices or with very high lookback windows.
3. **Interpretation Complexity:**
- While transparency offers visual clarity, understanding the underlying probability calculations requires a basic grasp of Poisson statistics, which may be a barrier for some traders.
---
**📢 **How to Use It**
1. **Add to TradingView:**
- Open TradingView and navigate to the Pine Script Editor.
- Paste the script above and click **Add to Chart**.
2. **Configure Inputs:**
- **Strata Increment:** Set the desired price step between strata (e.g., `0.1` for 10 cents).
- **Lookback Window:** Define how many past bars to consider for calculating Poisson probabilities (e.g., `80`).
- **Probability Transparency Threshold (%):** Set the threshold percentage to map probabilities to line transparency (e.g., `25%`).
3. **Understand the Forecast Iterations:**
- The indicator projects five forecast points into the future at bar spacings of 2, 3, 5, 8, and 13 bars ahead.
- Each iteration independently calculates its Poisson probability based on the touch counts within its specific lookback window offset by its forecasted position.
4. **Interpret the Visualization:**
- **Opaque Lines:** Indicate higher Poisson probabilities, suggesting historically significant price levels that are more likely to interact again.
- **Fainter Lines:** Represent lower probabilities, indicating less historically significant levels that may be less likely to interact.
- **Forecast Spacing:** The spacing of 2, 3, 5, 8, and 13 bars ahead aligns with Fibonacci principles, offering a natural progression in forecast horizons.
5. **Apply to Trading Strategies:**
- **Support/Resistance Identification:** Use the opaque lines as potential support and resistance levels for placing trades.
- **Entry and Exit Points:** Anticipate price interactions at forecasted levels to plan strategic entries and exits.
- **Risk Management:** Utilize the transparency mapping to determine where to place stop-loss and take-profit orders based on the probability of price interactions.
6. **Customize as Needed:**
- Adjust the **Strata Increment** to fit different price ranges or volatility levels.
- Modify the **Lookback Window** to capture more or fewer historical touches, adapting to different timeframes or market conditions.
- Tweak the **Probability Transparency Threshold** to control the sensitivity of transparency mapping to Poisson probabilities.
**📈 **Practical Applications**
1. **Identifying Key Levels:**
- Quickly visualize which price levels have historically had significant interactions, aiding in the identification of potential support and resistance zones.
2. **Forecasting Price Reactions:**
- Use the forecast iterations to anticipate where price may interact in the near future, assisting in planning entry and exit points.
3. **Risk Management:**
- Determine areas of high probability for price reversals or consolidations, enabling better placement of stop-loss and take-profit orders.
4. **Market Analysis:**
- Assess the strength of market levels over different forecast horizons, providing a multi-layered understanding of market structure.
---
**🔗 **Conclusion**
The *Poisson Projection of Price Levels* bridges the gap between statistical modeling and traditional technical analysis, offering traders a sophisticated tool to quantify and visualize the significance of price levels. By integrating Poisson probabilities with dynamic transparency mapping, this indicator provides a unique and insightful perspective on potential support and resistance zones, enhancing both analysis and trading strategies.
---
**📞 **Contact:**
For support or inquiries, please contact me on TradingView!
---
**📢 **Join the Conversation!**
Have questions, feedback, or suggestions for further enhancements? Feel free to comment below or reach out directly. Your input helps refine and evolve this tool to better serve the trading community.
---
**Happy Trading!** 🚀
XAMD/AMDX ICT 01 [TradingFinder] SMC Quarterly Theory Cycles🔵 Introduction
The XAMD/AMDX strategy, combined with the Quarterly Theory, forms the foundation of a powerful market structure analysis. This indicator builds upon the principles of the Power of 3 strategy introduced by ICT, enhancing its application by incorporating an additional phase.
By extending the logic of Power of 3, the XAMD/AMDX tool provides a more detailed and comprehensive view of daily market behavior, offering traders greater precision in identifying key movements and opportunities
This approach divides the trading day into four distinct phases : Accumulation (19:00 - 01:00 EST), Manipulation (01:00 - 07:00 EST), Distribution (07:00 - 13:00 EST), and Continuation or Reversal (13:00 - 19:00 EST), collectively known as AMDX.
Each phase reflects a specific market behavior, providing a structured lens to interpret price action. Building on the fractal nature of time in financial markets, the Quarterly Theory introduces the Four Quarters Method, where a currency pair’s price range is divided into quarters.
These divisions, known as quarter points, highlight critical levels for analyzing and predicting market dynamics. Together, these principles allow traders to align their strategies with institutional trading patterns, offering deeper insights into market trends
🔵 How to Use
The AMDX framework provides a structured approach to understanding market behavior throughout the trading day. Each phase has its own characteristics and trading opportunities, allowing traders to align their strategies effectively. To get the most out of this tool, understanding the dynamics of each phase is essential.
🟣 Accumulation
During the Accumulation phase (19:00 - 01:00 EST), the market is typically quiet, with price movements confined to a narrow range. This phase is where institutional players accumulate their positions, setting the stage for future price movements.
Traders should use this time to study price patterns and prepare for the next phases. It’s a great opportunity to mark key support and resistance zones and set alerts for potential breakouts, as the low volatility makes immediate trading less attractive.
🟣 Manipulation
The Manipulation phase (01:00 - 07:00 EST) is often marked by sharp and deceptive price movements. Institutions create false breakouts to trigger stop-losses and trap retail traders into the wrong direction. Traders should remain cautious during this phase, focusing on identifying the areas of liquidity where these traps occur.
Watching for price reversals after these false moves can provide excellent entry opportunities, but patience and confirmation are crucial to avoid getting caught in the manipulation.
🟣 Distribution
The Distribution phase (07:00 - 13:00 EST) is where the day’s dominant trend typically emerges. Institutions execute large trades, resulting in significant price movements. This phase is ideal for trading with the trend, as the market provides clearer directional signals.
Traders should focus on identifying breakouts or strong momentum in the direction of the trend established during this period. This phase is also where traders can capitalize on setups identified earlier, aligning their entries with the market’s broader sentiment.
🟣 Continuation or Reversal
Finally, the Continuation or Reversal phase (13:00 - 19:00 EST) offers a critical juncture to assess the market’s direction. This phase can either reinforce the established trend or signal a reversal as institutions adjust their positions.
Traders should observe price behavior closely during this time, looking for patterns that confirm whether the trend is likely to continue or reverse. This phase is particularly useful for adjusting open positions or initiating new trades based on emerging signals.
🔵 Settings
Show or Hide Phases.
Adjust the session times for each phase :
Accumulation: 19:00-01:00 EST
Manipulation: 01:00-07:00 EST
Distribution: 07:00-13:00 EST
Continuation or Reversal: 13:00-19:00 EST
Modify Visualization : Customize how the indicator looks by changing settings like colors and transparency.
🔵 Conclusion
AMDX provides traders with a practical method to analyze daily market behavior by dividing the trading day into four key phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, and Continuation or Reversal. Each phase highlights specific market dynamics, offering insights into how institutional activity shapes price movements.
From the quiet buildup in the Accumulation phase to the decisive trends of the Distribution phase, and the critical transitions in Continuation or Reversal, this approach equips traders with the tools to anticipate movements and make informed decisions.
By recognizing the significance of each phase, traders can avoid common traps during Manipulation, capitalize on clear trends during Distribution, and adapt to changes in the final phase of the day.
The structured visualization of market phases simplifies decision-making for traders of all levels. By incorporating these principles into your trading strategy, you can enhance your ability to align with market trends, optimize entry and exit points, and achieve more consistent results in your trading journey.
Smarter Money Concepts - OBs [PhenLabs]📊 Smarter Money Concepts - OBs
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
Smarter Money Concepts - OBs (Order Blocks) is an advanced technical analysis tool designed to identify and visualize institutional order zones on your charts. Order blocks represent significant areas of liquidity where smart money has entered positions before major moves. By tracking these zones, traders can anticipate potential reversals, continuations, and key reaction points in price action.
This indicator incorporates volume filtering technology to identify only the most significant order blocks, eliminating low-quality signals and focusing on areas where institutional participation is likely present. The combination of price structure analysis and volume confirmation provides traders with high-probability zones that may attract future price action for tests, rejections, or breakouts.
🚀 Points of Innovation
Volume-Filtered Block Detection : Identifies only order blocks formed with significant volume, focusing on areas with institutional participation
Advanced Break of Structure Logic : Uses sophisticated price action analysis to detect legitimate market structure breaks preceding order blocks
Dynamic Block Management : Intelligently tracks, extends, and removes order blocks based on price interaction and time-based expiration
Structure Recognition System : Employs technical analysis algorithms to find significant swing points for accurate order block identification
Dual Directional Tracking : Simultaneously monitors both bullish and bearish order blocks for comprehensive market structure analysis
🔧 Core Components
Order Block Detection : Identifies institutional entry zones by analyzing price action before significant breaks of structure, capturing where smart money has likely positioned before moves.
Volume Filtering Algorithm : Calculates relative volume compared to a moving average to qualify only order blocks formed with significant market participation, eliminating noise.
Structure Break Recognition : Uses price action analysis to detect legitimate breaks of market structure, ensuring order blocks are identified only at significant market turning points.
Dynamic Block Management : Continuously monitors price interaction with existing blocks, extending, maintaining, or removing them based on current market behavior.
🔥 Key Features
Volume-Based Filtering : Filter out insignificant blocks by requiring a minimum volume threshold, focusing only on zones with likely institutional activity
Visual Block Highlighting : Color-coded boxes clearly mark bullish and bearish order blocks with customizable appearance
Flexible Mitigation Options : Choose between “Wick” or “Close” methods for determining when a block has been tested or mitigated
Scan Range Adjustment : Customize how far back the indicator looks for structure points to adapt to different market conditions and timeframes
Break Source Selection : Configure which price component (close, open, high, low) is used to determine structure breaks for precise block identification
🎨 Visualization
Bullish Order Blocks : Blue-colored rectangles highlighting zones where bullish institutional orders were likely placed before upward moves, representing potential support areas.
Bearish Order Blocks : Red-colored rectangles highlighting zones where bearish institutional orders were likely placed before downward moves, representing potential resistance areas.
Block Extension : Order blocks extend to the right of the chart, providing clear visualization of these significant zones as price continues to develop.
📖 Usage Guidelines
Order Block Settings
Scan Range : Default: 25. Defines how many bars the indicator scans to determine significant structure points for order block identification.
Bull Break Price Source : Default: Close. Determines which price component is used to detect bullish breaks of structure.
Bear Break Price Source : Default: Close. Determines which price component is used to detect bearish breaks of structure.
Visual Settings
Bullish Blocks Color : Default: Blue with 85% transparency. Controls the appearance of bullish order blocks.
Bearish Blocks Color : Default: Red with 85% transparency. Controls the appearance of bearish order blocks.
General Options
Block Mitigation Method : Default: Wick, Options: Wick, Close. Determines how block mitigation is calculated - “Wick” uses high/low values while “Close” uses close values for more conservative mitigation criteria.
Remove Filled Blocks : Default: Disabled. When enabled, order blocks are removed once they’ve been mitigated by price action.
Volume Filter
Volume Filter Enabled : Default: Enabled. When activated, only shows order blocks formed with significant volume relative to recent average.
Volume SMA Period : Default: 15, Range: 1-50. Number of periods used to calculate the average volume baseline.
Min. Volume Ratio : Default: 1.5, Range: 0.5-10.0. Minimum volume ratio compared to average required to display an order block; higher values filter out more blocks.
✅ Best Use Cases
Identifying high-probability support and resistance zones for trade entries and exits
Finding optimal stop-loss placement behind significant order blocks
Detecting potential reversal areas where price may react after extended moves
Confirming breakout trades when price clears major order blocks
Building a comprehensive market structure map for medium to long-term trading decisions
Pinpointing areas where smart money may have positioned before major market moves
⚠️ Limitations
Most effective on higher timeframes (1H and above) where institutional activity is more clearly defined
Can generate multiple signals in choppy market conditions, requiring additional filtering
Volume filtering relies on accurate volume data, which may be less reliable for some securities
Recent market structure changes may invalidate older order blocks not yet automatically removed
Block identification is based on historical price action and may not predict future behavior with certainty
💡 What Makes This Unique
Volume Intelligence : Unlike basic order block indicators, this script incorporates volume analysis to identify only the most significant institutional zones, focusing on quality over quantity.
Structural Precision : Uses sophisticated break of structure algorithms to identify true market turning points, going beyond simple price pattern recognition.
Dynamic Block Management : Implements automatic block tracking, extension, and cleanup to maintain a clean and relevant chart display without manual intervention.
Institutional Focus : Designed specifically to highlight areas where smart money has likely positioned, helping retail traders align with institutional perspectives rather than retail noise.
🔬 How It Works
1. Structure Identification Process :
The indicator continuously scans price action to identify significant swing points and structure levels within the specified range, establishing a foundation for order block recognition.
2. Break Detection :
When price breaks an established structure level (crossing below a significant low for bearish breaks or above a significant high for bullish breaks), the indicator marks this as a potential zone for order block formation.
3. Volume Qualification :
For each potential order block, the algorithm calculates the relative volume compared to the configured period average. Only blocks formed with volume exceeding the minimum ratio threshold are displayed.
4. Block Creation and Management :
Valid order blocks are created, tracked, and managed as price continues to develop. Blocks extend to the right of the chart until they are either mitigated by price action or expire after the designated timeframe.
5. Continuous Monitoring :
The indicator constantly evaluates price interaction with existing blocks, determining when blocks have been tested, mitigated, or invalidated, and updates the visual representation accordingly.
💡 Note:
Order Blocks represent areas where institutional traders have likely established positions and may defend these zones during future price visits. For optimal results, use this indicator in conjunction with other confluent factors such as key support/resistance levels, trendlines, or additional confirmation indicators. The most reliable signals typically occur on higher timeframes where institutional activity is most prominent. Start with the default settings and adjust parameters gradually to match your specific trading instrument and style.
Pipsttocra Technical Patterns: EV HV FVG & OBPipstocrat Technical Patterns , identifies and visualizes key technical analysis patterns and structures on a TradingView chart. Here's a simple breakdown of what it does:
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Detects and highlights bullish and bearish Fair Value Gaps as colored boxes.
Adds centerline markers to indicate potential price levels.
Order Blocks (OB):
Identifies bullish and bearish order blocks (areas of significant buying or selling).
Displays them as colored rectangles extending to the right of the chart.
Candlestick Patterns:
Detects Engulfing Patterns (bullish and bearish) with volume confirmation.
Highlights Hammer and Inverted Hammer patterns with customizable shapes and colors.
Customization Options:
Allows users to adjust colors, sizes, and styles for all patterns and structures.
Provides options to show/hide specific patterns like FVGs, engulfing candles, hammers, etc.
Alerts:
Generates alerts for detected patterns, such as FVGs, order blocks, engulfing candles, and confluence zones (combination of FVGs and order blocks).
Management Features:
Automatically removes older or "filled" patterns (optional).
Tracks and updates patterns dynamically as new bars form.
Purpose:
This tool helps traders spot high-probability trading opportunities by identifying key market structures (like FVGs and order blocks) and candlestick patterns. It combines multiple technical analysis concepts into one comprehensive indicator for better decision-making.
SemiCircle Cycle Notation PivotsFor decades, traders have sought to decode the rhythm of the markets through cycle theory. From the groundbreaking work of HM Gartley in the 1930s to modern-day cycle trading tools on TradingView, the concept remains the same: markets move in repeating waves with larger cycles influencing smaller ones in a fractal-like structure, and understanding their timing gives traders an edge to better anticipate future price movements🔮.
Traditional cycle analysis has always been manual, requiring traders to painstakingly plot semicircles, diamonds, or sine waves to estimate pivot points and time reversals. Drawing tools like semicircle & sine wave projections exist on TradingView, but they lack automation—forcing traders to adjust cycle lengths by eye, often leading to inconsistencies.
This is where SemiCircle Cycle Notation Pivots indicator comes in. Semicircle cycle chart notation appears to have evolved as a practical visualization tool among cycle theorists rather than being pioneered by a single individual; some key influences include HM Gartley, WD Gann, JM Hurst, Walter Bressert, and RayTomes. Built upon LonesomeTheBlue's foundational ZigZag Waves indicator , this indicator takes cycle visualization to the next level by dynamically detecting price pivots and then automatically plotting semicircles based on real-time cycle length calculations & expected rhythm of price action over time.
Key Features:
Automated Cycle Detection: The indicator identifies pivot points based on your preference—highs, lows, or both—and plots semicircle waves that correspond to Hurst's cycle notation.
Customizable Cycle Lengths: Tailor the analysis to your trading strategy with adjustable cycle lengths, defaulting to 10, 20, and 40 bars, allowing for flexibility across various timeframes and assets.
Dynamic Wave Scaling: The semicircle waves adapt to different price structures, ensuring that the visualization remains proportional to the detected cycle lengths and aiding in the identification of potential reversal points.
Automated Cycle Detection: Dynamically identifies price pivot points and automatically adjusts offsets based on real-time cycle length calculations, ensuring precise semicircle wave alignment with market structure.
Color-Coded Cycle Tiers: Each cycle tier is distinctly color-coded, enabling quick differentiation and a clearer understanding of nested market cycles.
Trending Market Toolkit [LuxAlgo]The Trending Market Toolkit focuses exclusively on trending market structures and high-confluence, high-risk-to-reward entry models. It is designed to complement discretionary trading by offering different entry strategies based on market structure.
🔶 USAGE
In the chart above we can see how the tool detects several reversals, draws the broken trendlines, the reversal areas from which the tool starts looking for a trigger, and when it finally happens, a potential trade with risk and reward areas and the risk/reward ratio.
🔹 Detection Mode
Traders can choose between three different modes: trend only, reversal only, or both.
If both are active, reversals have priority over trends, so the tool will not detect a trend if a reversal is active.
In the chart above we can see all three modes.
🔹 Detection on Higher Timeframes
Traders can choose to identify structures on the chart timeframe or on a higher timeframe.
In the chart above, we have the SP500 futures on the 5m timeframe with different settings: chart timeframe, 30m, and 1H.
🔹 Risk And Targets
Depending on whether the high-risk/reward parameter is enabled, traders can choose between three different targets and two different stops.
The chart above shows how different choices affect the risk/reward ratio for the same potential trade on the Gold Futures 2m chart.
🔶 SETTINGS
Show: Traders can choose between Trends, Reversals or Both.
🔹 Structures
Swing Length: Number of candles to confirm a swing high or swing low. A higher number detects larger swings.
Custom Timeframe: Traders can make use of the current chart timeframe, or choose a custom timeframe.
Reversal Area Threshold: A higher number increases the reversal area.
🔹 Trades
Trade Trigger Length: Number of candles to confirm an internal high or internal low. A lower number detects smaller swings. It must be the same size or smaller than the swing length.
Target: Traders can choose between the default target (0) or two extended targets (0.27 or 0.618).
Risk to Reward Threshold: Set the minimum risk-to-reward ratio to detect trades. Use the 0 value to detect all trades.
High Risk to Reward: Enable/Disable the high risk to reward mode.
Son Model ICT [TradingFinder] HTF DOL H1 + Sweep M15 + FVG M1🔵 Introduction
The ICT Son Model setup is a precise trading strategy based on market structure and liquidity, implemented across multiple timeframes. This setup first identifies a liquidity level in the 1-hour (1H) timeframe and then confirms a Market Structure Shift (MSS) in the 5-minute (5M) timeframe to validate the trend. After confirmation, the price forms a new swing in the 5-minute timeframe, absorbing liquidity.
Once this level is broken, traders typically drop to the 30-second (30s) timeframe and enter trades based on a Fair Value Gap (FVG). However, since access to the 30-second timeframe is not available to most traders, we take the entry signal directly from the 5-minute timeframe, using the same liquidity zones and confirmed breakouts to execute trades. This approach simplifies execution and makes the strategy accessible to all traders.
This model operates in two setups :
Bullish ICT Son Model and Bearish ICT Son Model. In the bullish setup, liquidity is first accumulated at the lows of the 1-hour timeframe, and after confirming a market structure shift, a long position is initiated. Conversely, in the bearish setup, liquidity is first drawn from higher levels, and upon confirmation of a bearish trend, a short position is executed.
Bullish Setup :
Bearish Setup :
🔵 How to Use
The ICT Son Model setup is designed around liquidity analysis and market structure shifts and can be applied in both bullish and bearish market conditions. The strategy first identifies a liquidity level in the 1-hour (1H) timeframe and then confirms a Market Structure Shift (MSS) in the 5-minute (5M) timeframe.
After this shift, the price forms a new swing, absorbing liquidity. When this level is broken in the 5-minute timeframe, the trader enters based on a Fair Value Gap (FVG). While the ideal entry is in the 30-second (30s) timeframe, due to accessibility constraints, we take entry signals directly from the 5-minute timeframe.
🟣 Bullish Setup
In the Bullish ICT Son Model, the 1-hour timeframe first identifies liquidity at the market lows, where price sweeps this level to absorb liquidity. Then, in the 5-minute timeframe, an MSS confirms the bullish shift.
After confirmation, the price forms a new swing, absorbing liquidity at a higher level. The price then retraces into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) created in the 5-minute timeframe, where the trader enters a long position, placing the stop-loss below the FVG.
🟣 Bearish Setup
In the Bearish ICT Son Model, liquidity at higher market levels is identified in the 1-hour timeframe, where price sweeps these levels to absorb liquidity. Then, in the 5-minute timeframe, an MSS confirms the bearish trend.
After confirmation, the price forms a new swing, absorbing liquidity at a lower level. The price then retraces into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) created in the 5-minute timeframe, where the trader enters a short position, placing the stop-loss above the FVG.
🔵 Settings
Swing period : You can set the swing detection period.
Max Swing Back Method : It is in two modes "All" and "Custom". If it is in "All" mode, it will check all swings, and if it is in "Custom" mode, it will check the swings to the extent you determine.
Max Swing Back : You can set the number of swings that will go back for checking.
FVG Length : Default is 120 Bar.
MSS Length : Default is 80 Bar.
FVG Filter : This refines the number of identified FVG areas based on a specified algorithm to focus on higher quality signals and reduce noise.
Types of FVG filters :
Very Aggressive Filter: Adds a condition where, for an upward FVG, the last candle's highest price must exceed the middle candle's highest price, and for a downward FVG, the last candle's lowest price must be lower than the middle candle's lowest price. This minimally filters out FVGs.
Aggressive Filter: Builds on the Very Aggressive mode by ensuring the middle candle is not too small, filtering out more FVGs.
Defensive Filter: Adds criteria regarding the size and structure of the middle candle, requiring it to have a substantial body and specific polarity conditions, filtering out a significant number of FVGs.
Very Defensive Filter: Further refines filtering by ensuring the first and third candles are not small-bodied doji candles, retaining only the highest quality signals.
🔵 Conclusion
The ICT Son Model setup is a structured and precise method for trade execution based on liquidity analysis and market structure shifts. This strategy first identifies a liquidity level in the 1-hour timeframe and then confirms a trend shift using the 5-minute timeframe.
Trade entries are executed based on Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), which highlight optimal entry points. By applying this model, traders can leverage existing market liquidity to enter high-probability trades. The bullish setup activates when liquidity is swept from market lows and a market structure shift confirms an upward trend, whereas the bearish setup is used when liquidity is drawn from market highs, confirming a downtrend.
This approach enables traders to identify high-probability trade setups with greater precision compared to many other strategies. Additionally, since access to the 30-second timeframe is limited, the strategy remains fully functional in the 5-minute timeframe, making it more practical and accessible for a wider range of traders.
ka66: Swing/Pivot Point LinesThis indicator draws swing-highs and swing-lows, also called pivot highs and lows.
A swing high is a bar which has a higher-high than its surrounding bars (to the left and the right).
A swing low is a bar which has a lower-low than its surrounding bars (to the left and the right).
A common example of a pivot is Bill Williams' Fractal, which specifies that the centre bar must have a higher high than 2 bars to its left, and 2 bars to its right for a swing high, taking into account 5 bars at a time. Similarly, for a swing low, the centre bar must have a lower low than the 2 bars to its left and right.
This indicator allows configurable adjacent bars as input. Entering 2, means it essentially picks out a Williams Fractal. But you can select 1 (say for higher timeframes), using one 1 bar to the left and right of the centre bar.
The indicator will draw Swing/Pivot High/Low as circles at the same price level as the centre bar, till the next one shows up. Drawing is offset so it starts at the centre bar (the swing bar), showing exactly where the pivot bar is.
There are 2 main uses of pivot points, in various strategies:
Market Structure: to objectively define higher-highs/lows and lower-highs/lows in Trend Analysis.
More generally, to then determine if a trend might reverse, or continue as pivot levels are broken.
Messy pivot structures easily point out ranging markets.
There are a few of these, some closed source, which I don't like, since I think people should generally know what they are trading with, and I want to make sure I understand the logic exactly.
ICT Concepts [LuxAlgo]The ICT Concepts indicator regroups core concepts highlighted by trader and educator "The Inner Circle Trader" (ICT) into an all-in-one toolkit. Features include Market Structure (MSS & BOS), Order Blocks, Imbalances, Buyside/Sellside Liquidity, Displacements, ICT Killzones, and New Week/Day Opening Gaps.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Mode
When Present is selected, only data of the latest 500 bars are used/visualized, except for NWOG/NDOG
🔹 Market Structure
Enable/disable Market Structure.
Length: will set the lookback period/sensitivity.
In Present Mode only the latest Market Structure trend will be shown, while in Historical Mode, previous trends will be shown as well:
You can toggle MSS/BOS separately and change the colors:
🔹 Displacement
Enable/disable Displacement.
🔹 Volume Imbalance
Enable/disable Volume Imbalance.
# Visible VI's: sets the amount of visible Volume Imbalances (max 100), color setting is placed at the side.
🔹 Order Blocks
Enable/disable Order Blocks.
Swing Lookback: Lookback period used for the detection of the swing points used to create order blocks.
Show Last Bullish OB: Number of the most recent bullish order/breaker blocks to display on the chart.
Show Last Bearish OB: Number of the most recent bearish order/breaker blocks to display on the chart.
Color settings.
Show Historical Polarity Changes: Allows users to see labels indicating where a swing high/low previously occurred within a breaker block.
Use Candle Body: Allows users to use candle bodies as order block areas instead of the full candle range.
Change in Order Blocks style:
🔹 Liquidity
Enable/disable Liquidity.
Margin: sets the sensitivity, 2 points are fairly equal when:
'point 1' < 'point 2' + (10 bar Average True Range / (10 / margin)) and
'point 1' > 'point 2' - (10 bar Average True Range / (10 / margin))
# Visible Liq. boxes: sets the amount of visible Liquidity boxes (max 50), this amount is for Sellside and Buyside boxes separately.
Colour settings.
Change in Liquidity style:
🔹 Fair Value Gaps
Enable/disable FVG's.
Balance Price Range: this is the overlap of latest bullish and bearish Fair Value Gaps.
By disabling Balance Price Range only FVGs will be shown.
Options: Choose whether you wish to see FVG or Implied Fair Value Gaps (this will impact Balance Price Range as well)
# Visible FVG's: sets the amount of visible FVG's (max 20, in the same direction).
Color settings.
Change in FVG style:
🔹 NWOG/NDOG
Enable/disable NWOG; color settings; amount of NWOG shown (max 50).
Enable/disable NDOG ; color settings; amount of NDOG shown (max 50).
🔹 Fibonacci
This tool connects the 2 most recent bullish/bearish (if applicable) features of your choice, provided they are enabled.
3 examples (FVG, BPR, OB):
Extend lines -> Enabled (example OB):
🔹 Killzones
Enable/disable all or the ones you need.
Time settings are coded in the corresponding time zones.
🔶 USAGE
By default, the indicator displays each feature relevant to the most recent price variations in order to avoid clutter on the chart & to provide a very similar experience to how a user would contruct ICT Concepts by hand.
Users can use the historical mode in the settings to see historical market structure/imbalances. The ICT Concepts indicator has various use cases, below we outline many examples of how a trader could find usage of the features together.
In the above image we can see price took out Sellside liquidity, filled two bearish FVGs, a market structure shift, which then led to a clean retest of a bullish FVG as a clean setup to target the order block above.
Price then fills the OB which creates a breaker level as seen in yellow.
Broken OBs can be useful for a trader using the ICT Concepts indicator as it marks a level where orders have now been filled, indicating a solidified level that has proved itself as an area of liquidity. In the image above we can see a trade setup using a broken bearish OB as a potential entry level.
We can see the New Week Opening Gap (NWOG) above was an optimal level to target considering price may tend to fill / react off of these levels according to ICT.
In the next image above, we have another example of various use cases where the ICT Concepts indicator hypothetically allow traders to find key levels & find optimal entry points using market structure.
In the image above we can see a bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS) is confirmed, indicating a potential trade setup for targeting the Balanced Price Range imbalance (BPR) below with a stop loss above the buyside liquidity.
Although what we are demonstrating here is a hindsight example, it shows the potential usage this toolkit gives you for creating trading plans based on ICT Concepts.
Same chart but playing out the history further we can see directly after price came down to the Sellside liquidity & swept below it...
Then by enabling IFVGs in the settings, we can see the IFVG retests alongside the Sellside & Buyside liquidity acting in confluence.
Which allows us to see a great bullish structure in the market with various key levels for potential entries.
Here we can see a potential bullish setup as price has taken out a previous Sellside liquidity zone and is now retesting a NWOG + Volume Imbalance.
Users also have the option to display Fibonacci retracements based on market structure, order blocks, and imbalance areas, which can help place limit/stop orders more effectively as well as finding optimal points of interest beyond what the primary ICT Concepts features can generate for a trader.
In the above image we can see the Fibonacci extension was selected to be based on the NWOG giving us some upside levels above the buyside liquidity.
🔶 DETAILS
Each feature within the ICT Concepts indicator is described in the sub sections below.
🔹 Market Structure
Market structure labels are constructed from price breaking a prior swing point. This allows a user to determine the current market trend based on the price action.
There are two types of Market Structure labels included:
Market Structure Shift (MSS)
Break Of Structure (BOS)
A MSS occurs when price breaks a swing low in an uptrend or a swing high in a downtrend, highlighting a potential reversal. This is often labeled as "CHoCH", but ICT specifies it as MSS.
On the other hand, BOS labels occur when price breaks a swing high in an uptrend or a swing low in a downtrend. The occurrence of these particular swing points is caused by retracements (inducements) that highlights liquidity hunting in lower timeframes.
🔹 Order Blocks
More significant market participants (institutions) with the ability of placing large orders in the market will generally place a sequence of individual trades spread out in time. This is referred as executing what is called a "meta-order".
Order blocks highlight the area where potential meta-orders are executed. Bullish order blocks are located near local bottoms in an uptrend while bearish order blocks are located near local tops in a downtrend.
When price mitigates (breaks out) an order block, a breaker block is confirmed. We can eventually expect price to trade back to this breaker block offering a new trade opportunity.
🔹 Buyside & Sellside Liquidity
Buyside / Sellside liquidity levels highlight price levels where market participants might place limit/stop orders.
Buyside liquidity levels will regroup the stoploss orders of short traders as well as limit orders of long traders, while Sellside liquidity levels will regroup the stoploss orders of long traders as well as limit orders of short traders.
These levels can play different roles. More informed market participants might view these levels as source of liquidity, and once liquidity over a specific level is reduced it will be found in another area.
🔹 Imbalances
Imbalances highlight disparities between the bid/ask, these can also be defined as inefficiencies, which would suggest that not all available information is reflected by the price and would as such provide potential trading opportunities.
It is common for price to "rebalance" and seek to come back to a previous imbalance area.
ICT highlights multiple imbalance formations:
Fair Value Gaps: A three candle formation where the candle shadows adjacent to the central candle do not overlap, this highlights a gap area.
Implied Fair Value Gaps: Unlike the fair value gap the implied fair value gap has candle shadows adjacent to the central candle overlapping. The gap area is constructed from the average between the respective shadow and the nearest extremity of their candle body.
Balanced Price Range: Balanced price ranges occur when a fair value gap overlaps a previous fair value gap, with the overlapping area resulting in the imbalance area.
Volume Imbalance: Volume imbalances highlight gaps between the opening price and closing price with existing trading activity (the low/high overlap the previous high/low).
Opening Gap: Unlike volume imbalances opening gaps highlight areas with no trading activity. The low/high does not reach previous high/low, highlighting a "void" area.
🔹 Displacement
Displacements are scenarios where price forms successive candles of the same sentiment (bullish/bearish) with large bodies and short shadows.
These can more technically be identified by positive auto correlation (a close to open change is more likely to be followed by a change of the same sign) as well as volatility clustering (large changes are followed by large changes).
Displacements can be the cause for the formation of imbalances as well as market structure, these can be caused by the full execution of a meta order.
🔹 Kill Zones
Killzones represent different time intervals that aims at offering optimal trade entries. Killzones include:
- New York Killzone (7:9 ET)
- London Open Killzone (2:5 ET)
- London Close Killzone (10:12 ET)
- Asian Killzone (20:00 ET)
🔶 Conclusion & Supplementary Material
This script aims to emulate how a trader would draw each of the covered features on their chart in the most precise representation to how it's actually taught by ICT directly.
There are many parallels between ICT Concepts and Smart Money Concepts that we released in 2022 which has a more general & simpler usage:
ICT Concepts, however, is more specifically aligned toward the community's interpretation of how to analyze price 'based on ICT', rather than displaying features to have a more classic interpretation for a technical analyst.
Smart Money Concepts Probability (Expo)█ Overview
The Smart Money Concept Probability (Expo) is an indicator developed to track the actions of institutional investors, commonly known as "smart money." This tool calculates the likelihood of smart money being actively engaged in buying or selling within the market, referred to as the "smart money order flow."
The indicator measures the probability of three key events: Change of Character ( CHoCH ), Shift in Market Structure ( SMS ), and Break of Structure ( BMS ). These probabilities are displayed as percentages alongside their respective levels, providing a straightforward and immediate understanding of the likelihood of smart money order flow.
Finally, the backtested results are shown in a table, which gives traders an understanding of the historical performance of the current order flow direction.
█ Calculations
The algorithm individually computes the likelihood of the events ( CHoCH , SMS , and BMS ). A positive score is assigned for events where the price successfully breaks through the level with the highest probability, and a negative score when the price fails to do so. By doing so, the algorithm determines the probability of each event occurring and calculates the total profitability derived from all the events.
█ Example
In this case, we have an 85% probability that the price will break above the upper range and make a new Break Of Structure and only a 16.36% probability that the price will break below the lower range and make a Change Of Character.
█ Settings
The Structure Period sets the pivot period to use when calculating the market structure.
The Structure Response sets how responsive the market structure should be. A low value returns a more responsive structure. A high value returns a less responsive structure.
█ How to use
This indicator is a perfect tool for anyone that wants to understand the probability of a Change of Character ( CHoCH ), Shift in Market Structure ( SMS ), and Break of Structure ( BMS )
The insights provided by this tool help traders gain an understanding of the smart money order flow direction, which can be used to determine the market trend.
█ Any Alert function call
An alert is sent when the price breaks the upper or lower range, and you can select what should be included in the alert. You can enable the following options:
Ticker ID
Timeframe
Probability percentage
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
TRADING MADE SIMPLEThis indicator shows market structure. The standard method of using Williams Highs and Lows as pivots, is something of an approximation.
What's original here is that we follow rules to confirm Local Highs and Local Lows, and strictly enforce that a Low can only follow a confirmed High and vice-versa.
-- Highs and Lows
To confirm a candle as a Local High, you need a later candle to Close below its Low. To confirm a Local Low, you need a Close above its High.
A Low can only follow a High (after it's been confirmed). You can't go e.g High, High, Low, Low, only High, Low, High, Low.
When price makes Higher Highs and Higher Lows, market structure is said to be bullish. When price makes Lower Lows and Lower Highs, it's bearish.
I've defined the in-between Highs and Lows as "Ranging", meaning, neutral. They could be trend continuation or reversal.
-- Bullish/Bearish Breaks
A Bullish break in market structure is when the Close of the current candle goes higher than the previous confirmed Local High.
A Bearish Break is when the Close of the current candle goes lower than the most recent confirmed Local Low.
I chose to use Close rather than High to reduce edge case weirdness. The breaking candle often ends up being a big one, thus the close of that candle can be a poor entry.
You can get live warnings by setting the alert to Options: Only Once, because during a candle, the current price is taken as the Close.
Breaks are like early warnings of a change in market bias, because you're not waiting for a High or Low to be formed and confirmed.
Buy The Dip / Sell The Rally
Buy The Dip is a label I gave to the first Higher Low in a bullish market structure. Sell The Rally is the first Lower High in a bearish market structure.
These *might* be good buying/selling opportunities, but you still need to do your own analysis to confirm that.
== USAGE ==
The point of knowing market structure is so you don't make bullish bets in a bearish market and vice versa -
or if you do at least you're aware that that's what you're doing, and hopefully have some overwhelmingly good reason to do so.
These are not signals to be traded on their own. You still need a trade thesis. Use with support & resistance and your other favourite indicators.
Works on any market on any timeframe. Be aware that market structure will be different on different timeframes.
IMPORTANT: If you're not seeing what you expect, check your settings and re-read this entire description carefully. Confirming Highs and Lows can get deceptively complex.
Metatron Lines (Highs & Lows Geometry)Metatron Lines
Hey TradingView community! 👋
I wanted to share something I've been working on that might help you see market structure from a different angle. This indicator connects pivot highs and lows using geometric patterns, creating what I call "Metatron Lines."
What it does (simply put):
- Finds significant highs and lows on your chart
- Draws lines connecting these points to reveal hidden geometric relationships
- Shows you the underlying structure that price tends to respect
Why I built this:
I noticed that markets often move in patterns that aren't immediately obvious. Sometimes the most important levels aren't the obvious support and resistance lines, but the intersections and angles created by connecting multiple pivot points. This tool helps visualize those relationships.
How it might help you:
- Pattern Recognition : Spot geometric formations that traditional analysis might miss
- Support/Resistance : See where multiple geometric lines converge to create strong levels
- Market Structure : Better understand how price flows and where it might find obstacles
- Confluence Areas : Identify zones where multiple geometric elements align
A few honest thoughts:
This isn't a magic bullet or a guaranteed profit maker (nothing is!). It's simply another lens through which to view price action. Some traders find geometric analysis helpful, others prefer different approaches - and that's perfectly fine.
I've tried to make it customizable so you can adjust it to fit your trading style and timeframe. The default settings work well for most instruments, but feel free to experiment.
Settings you can adjust:
- Pivot detection sensitivity
- Number of connection points
- Line colors and styles
- Which connections to show (highs, lows, or both)
I hope some of you find this useful! I'm always learning from this community, so if you have suggestions for improvements or different ways to use it, I'd love to hear them.
Trade safe and trust your process! 📈
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This indicator is provided as-is for educational and analysis purposes. Please practice proper risk management and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
StatPivot- Dynamic Range Analyzer - indicator [PresentTrading]Hello everyone! In the following few open scripts, I would like to share various statistical tools that benefit trading. For this time, it is a powerful indicator called StatPivot- Dynamic Range Analyzer that brings a whole new dimension to your technical analysis toolkit.
This tool goes beyond traditional pivot point analysis by providing comprehensive statistical insights about price movements, helping you identify high-probability trading opportunities based on historical data patterns rather than subjective interpretations. Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or position trader, StatPivot's real-time percentile rankings give you a statistical edge in understanding exactly where current price action stands within historical contexts.
Welcome to share your opinions! Looking forward to sharing the next tool soon!
█ Introduction and How it is Different
StatPivot is an advanced technical analysis tool that revolutionizes retracement analysis. Unlike traditional pivot indicators that only show static support/resistance levels, StatPivot delivers dynamic statistical insights based on historical pivot patterns.
Its key innovation is real-time percentile calculation - while conventional tools require new pivot formations before updating (often too late for trading decisions), StatPivot continuously analyzes where current price stands within historical retracement distributions.
Furthermore, StatPivot provides comprehensive statistical metrics including mean, median, standard deviation, and percentile distributions of price movements, giving traders a probabilistic edge by revealing which price levels represent statistically significant zones for potential reversals or continuations. By transforming raw price data into statistical insights, StatPivot helps traders move beyond subjective price analysis to evidence-based decision making.
█ Strategy, How it Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Pivot Point Detection and Analysis
The core of StatPivot's functionality begins with identifying significant pivot points in the price structure. Using the parameters left and right, the indicator locates pivot highs and lows by examining a specified number of bars to the left and right of each potential pivot point:
Copyp_low = ta.pivotlow(low, left, right)
p_high = ta.pivothigh(high, left, right)
For a point to qualify as a pivot low, it must have left higher lows to its left and right higher lows to its right. Similarly, a pivot high must have left lower highs to its left and right lower highs to its right. This approach ensures that only significant turning points are recognized.
🔶 Percentage Change Calculation
Once pivot points are identified, StatPivot calculates the percentage changes between consecutive pivot points:
For drops (when a pivot low is lower than the previous pivot low):
CopydropPercent = (previous_pivot_low - current_pivot_low) / previous_pivot_low * 100
For rises (when a pivot high is higher than the previous pivot high):
CopyrisePercent = (current_pivot_high - previous_pivot_high) / previous_pivot_high * 100
These calculations quantify the magnitude of each market swing, allowing for statistical analysis of historical price movements.
🔶 Statistical Distribution Analysis
StatPivot computes comprehensive statistics on the historical distribution of drops and rises:
Average (Mean): The arithmetic mean of all recorded percentage changes
CopyavgDrop = array.avg(dropValues)
Median: The middle value when all percentage changes are arranged in order
CopymedianDrop = array.median(dropValues)
Standard Deviation: Measures the dispersion of percentage changes from the average
CopystdDevDrop = array.stdev(dropValues)
Percentiles (25th, 75th): Values below which 25% and 75% of observations fall
Copyq1 = array.get(sorted, math.floor(cnt * 0.25))
q3 = array.get(sorted, math.floor(cnt * 0.75))
VaR95: The maximum expected percentage drop with 95% confidence
Copyvar95D = array.get(sortedD, math.floor(nD * 0.95))
Coefficient of Variation (CV): Measures relative variability
CopycvD = stdDevDrop / avgDrop
These statistics provide a comprehensive view of market behavior, enabling traders to understand the typical ranges and extreme moves.
🔶 Real-time Percentile Ranking
StatPivot's most innovative feature is its real-time percentile calculation. For each current price, it calculates:
The percentage drop from the latest pivot high:
CopycurrentDropPct = (latestPivotHigh - close) / latestPivotHigh * 100
The percentage rise from the latest pivot low:
CopycurrentRisePct = (close - latestPivotLow) / latestPivotLow * 100
The percentile ranks of these values within the historical distribution:
CopyrealtimeDropRank = (count of historical drops <= currentDropPct) / total drops * 100
This calculation reveals exactly where the current price movement stands in relation to all historical movements, providing crucial context for decision-making.
🔶 Cluster Analysis
To identify the most common retracement zones, StatPivot performs a cluster analysis by dividing the range of historical drops into five equal intervals:
CopyrangeSize = maxVal - minVal
For each interval boundary:
Copyboundaries = minVal + rangeSize * i / 5
By counting the number of observations in each interval, the indicator identifies the most frequently occurring retracement zones, which often serve as significant support or resistance areas.
🔶 Expected Price Targets
Using the statistical data, StatPivot calculates expected price targets:
CopytargetBuyPrice = close * (1 - avgDrop / 100)
targetSellPrice = close * (1 + avgRise / 100)
These targets represent statistically probable price levels for potential entries and exits based on the average historical behavior of the market.
█ Trade Direction
StatPivot functions as an analytical tool rather than a direct trading signal generator, providing statistical insights that can be applied to various trading strategies. However, the data it generates can be interpreted for different trade directions:
For Long Trades:
Entry considerations: Look for price drops that reach the 70-80th percentile range in the historical distribution, suggesting a statistically significant retracement
Target setting: Use the Expected Sell price or consider the average rise percentage as a reasonable target
Risk management: Set stop losses below recent pivot lows or at a distance related to the statistical volatility (standard deviation)
For Short Trades:
Entry considerations: Look for price rises that reach the 70-80th percentile range, indicating an unusual extension
Target setting: Use the Expected Buy price or average drop percentage as a target
Risk management: Set stop losses above recent pivot highs or based on statistical measures of volatility
For Range Trading:
Use the most common drop and rise clusters to identify probable reversal zones
Trade bounces between these statistically significant levels
For Trend Following:
Confirm trend strength by analyzing consecutive higher pivot lows (uptrend) or lower pivot highs (downtrend)
Use lower percentile retracements (20-30th percentile) as entry opportunities in established trends
█ Usage
StatPivot offers multiple ways to integrate its statistical insights into your trading workflow:
Statistical Table Analysis: Review the comprehensive statistics displayed in the data table to understand the market's behavior. Pay particular attention to:
Average drop and rise percentages to set reasonable expectations
Standard deviation to gauge volatility
VaR95 for risk assessment
Real-time Percentile Monitoring: Watch the real-time percentile display to see where the current price movement stands within the historical distribution. This can help identify:
Extreme movements (90th+ percentile) that might indicate reversal opportunities
Typical retracements (40-60th percentile) that might continue further
Shallow pullbacks (10-30th percentile) that might represent continuation opportunities in trends
Support and Resistance Identification: Utilize the plotted pivot points as key support and resistance levels, especially when they align with statistically significant percentile ranges.
Target Price Setting: Use the expected buy and sell prices calculated from historical averages as initial targets for your trades.
Risk Management: Apply the statistical measurements like standard deviation and VaR95 to set appropriate stop loss levels that account for the market's historical volatility.
Pattern Recognition: Over time, learn to recognize when certain percentile levels consistently lead to reversals or continuations in your specific market, and develop personalized strategies based on these observations.
█ Default Settings
The default settings of StatPivot have been carefully calibrated to provide reliable statistical analysis across a variety of markets and timeframes, but understanding their effects allows for optimal customization:
Left Bars (30) and Right Bars (30): These parameters determine how pivot points are identified. With both set to 30 by default:
A pivot low must be the lowest point among 30 bars to its left and 30 bars to its right
A pivot high must be the highest point among 30 bars to its left and 30 bars to its right
Effect on performance: Larger values create fewer but more significant pivot points, reducing noise but potentially missing important market structures. Smaller values generate more pivot points, capturing more nuanced movements but potentially including noise.
Table Position (Top Right): Determines where the statistical data table appears on the chart.
Effect on performance: No impact on analytical performance, purely a visual preference.
Show Distribution Histogram (False): Controls whether the distribution histogram of drop percentages is displayed.
Effect on performance: Enabling this provides visual insight into the distribution of retracements but can clutter the chart.
Show Real-time Percentile (True): Toggles the display of real-time percentile rankings.
Effect on performance: A critical setting that enables the dynamic analysis of current price movements. Disabling this removes one of the key advantages of the indicator.
Real-time Percentile Display Mode (Label): Chooses between label display or indicator line for percentile rankings.
Effect on performance: Labels provide precise information at the current price point, while indicator lines show the evolution of percentile rankings over time.
Advanced Considerations for Settings Optimization:
Timeframe Adjustment: Higher timeframes generally benefit from larger Left/Right values to identify truly significant pivots, while lower timeframes may require smaller values to capture shorter-term swings.
Volatility-Based Tuning: In highly volatile markets, consider increasing the Left/Right values to filter out noise. In less volatile conditions, lower values can help identify more potential entry and exit points.
Market-Specific Optimization: Different markets (forex, stocks, commodities) display different retracement patterns. Monitor the statistics table to see if your market typically shows larger or smaller retracements than the current settings are optimized for.
Trading Style Alignment: Adjust the settings to match your trading timeframe. Day traders might prefer settings that identify shorter-term pivots (smaller Left/Right values), while swing traders benefit from more significant pivots (larger Left/Right values).
By understanding how these settings affect the analysis and customizing them to your specific market and trading style, you can maximize the effectiveness of StatPivot as a powerful statistical tool for identifying high-probability trading opportunities.
